仲量联行廊坊零售物业市场研究.ppt

廊坊零售物业宏观环境Macroeconomics of Retail Property Market,廊坊市商业就业人口Commercial Employment,注Note:商业就业人口这里指的是从事批发和零售、住宿和餐饮业的就业人口。Commercial Employment refers to employment in Wholesale and Retail business and Lodging&Restaurant industry.A代表商业就业人口占总就业人口的比例。A represents the ratio of Commercial Employment over total employment.B代表商业就业人口占第三产业就业人口的比例。B represents the ratio of Commercial Employment over tertiary industry employment.Source:Statistic Bureau of Langfang,商业提供了重要的就业渠道。Commercial industry provides important employment channel for City of Langfang.廊坊市城镇第三产业就业人口中有53%就业于商业中。About 53%of the tertiary industry employment comes from the commercial industry.商业就业人口占城市的总就业人口和第三产业就业人口的比例均大于相应的对农村就业人口的比例。这说明城市化将引导更多的人就业于商业。The proportions of commercial employment over total employment and tertiary industry employment of urban population are larger than those of rural population.It implies that urbanization will lead more employment in commercial industry.,主要的商业就业人口分布在个体、私营企业中，占78%。Private sector absorbs 78%of the commercial employment.城镇单位就业人员的比例在不断地缩小之中。The share of commercial employment coming from state-owned&collective-owned companies becomes smaller over time.,廊坊市社会商品零售总额分结构Composition of Langfang Retail Sales,2005年批发零售业中，廊坊市限额以上企业所产生的社会商品零售总额仅占16%，其余84%均来自于限额以下企业和个体户。In 2005,large companies generated total retail and whole sales of RMB,accounting 16%of the total retail and whole sales;84%of the rest came from small companies or family businesses.分限额企业的社会商品零售总额比例说明总体来讲，廊坊市当地的零售市场集中度较低，当地的零售企业实力不强。The composition by large and small companies explains that the retail and whole sales market in Langfang is rather fragmented and local retailers and wholesalers are not strong.,餐饮业所产生的社会商品零售总额分类中，明星企业仅占有6%的份额而星级以外企业和个体户占有94%。In 2005,star companies of catering industry accounts only 6%of the total catering sales in Langfang;non-star companies or family businesses make up 94%.餐饮业的销售构成说明廊坊市的餐饮业欠发达，主要的餐饮服务通过较小的分散的个体企业来执行。The composition of catering sales may reflect that Langfang catering services are rather under developed.Small companies and family businesses provide major catering services in Langfang.,廊坊市分区县社会商品零售总额和人均收入Map of Langfang Retail Sales and Disposal Income by District/County,人均社会商品零售总额大于人均可支配收入。流入的消费力大于流出的消费力。Retail sales per capita outweigh disposal income per capita.Sales inflow from Beijing exceeds sales outflow.,人均社会商品零售总额远小于人均可支配收入。流入的消费力小于流出的消费力。Retail sales per capita are much less than disposal income per capita.Loss of retail sales to Beijing is apparent.,人均社会商品零售总额接近人均可支配收入。流入的消费力和流出的消费力都比较小。Retail sales per capita are close to disposal income per capita.Sales inflow and outflow are minimal.,广阳区城市及农村居民消费支出结构Composition of Guangyang Urban and Rural Residents Living Expenditures,广阳区城市和农村居民消费支出相差巨大，城市居民人均支出为8190元每年每人，农村居民人均支出为2494元每人每年，仅相当于城市居民的30%。The expenditure of Guangyang urban and rural residents vary significantly.Living expenditure of urban residents is RMB 8190 per year while that of rural residents is RMB 2494.从消费结构上来讲，两类居民也有很大的不同。城市居民的医疗保健开支是除食品之外最大比例的部分。而对农村居民来讲，居住上的开销占到22%，为除食品外最大的开支。The expenditure structures of the urban and rural residents are largely different.For urban residents,medical care is the second largest expenditure while housing is only second to food for rural residents.,广阳区城市居民消费支出结构Breakdown of Guangyang Urban Residents Living Expenditures,廊坊市零售物业宏观环境总结Summary of Langfang Macroeconomics of Retail Property Market,商业提供了重要的就业渠道。廊坊市城镇第三产业就业人口中有53%就业于商业中。Commercial industry provides important employment channel for City of Langfang.About 53%of the tertiary industry employment comes from the commercial industry.廊坊市当地的零售市场集中度较低，当地的零售企业实力不强。The composition by large and small companies explains that the retail and whole sales market in Langfang is rather fragmented and local retailers and wholesalers are not strong.餐饮业的销售构成说明廊坊市的餐饮业欠发达，主要的餐饮服务通过较小的分散的个体企业来执行。The composition of catering sales may reflect that Langfang catering services are rather under developed.Small companies and family businesses provide major catering services in Langfang.广阳和安次区人均社会商品零售总额远小于人均可支配收入。这说明流入的消费力小于流出的消费力。For Guangyang and Anci,that fact and retail sales per capita are much less than disposal income per capita may be explained by the loss of retail sales to Beijing.广阳区城市和农村居民消费支出相差巨大，城市居民人均支出为8190元每年每人，农村居民人均支出为2494元每人每年，仅相当于城市居民的30%。The expenditure of Guangyang urban and rural residents vary significantly.Living expenditure of urban residents is RMB 8190 per year while that of rural residents is only RMB 2494.,6.2 廊坊市市区商业网点规划介绍Introduction to Langfang Retail Master Planning,廊坊市市区商业发展目标Development Target of Retail Market in Langfang City Area,发展目标 Development Target以主城区为重点，开发区、万庄区为骨干，到2020年基本建成商业网点布局和业态结构合理，服务功能完善，有特色的区域性商贸中心In 2020,Langfang will be built into a regional commercial center with well distributed retail shops,sound structure of retail formats,and complete services function.The new developments will focus on main city,Development zone,and Wanzhuang.廊坊市市区商业网点到2010年总面积达72万平方米，人均商业面积0.8平方米。In 2010,the total retail area of city wide will reach 720,000 sqm with retail area per capita of 0.8 sqm.市区商业网点营业面积到2020年达到225万平方米，人均1.5平方米。In 2020,the total retail area of city wide will reach 2.25 million sqm with retail are per capita of 1.5 sqm.2005至2010年市区全社会消费品零售总额年均增长15%（以2005年为基数），2010年突破53.9亿元；2010年到2020年年均增长20%，2020年达到333.7亿元。The compounded annual growth rate of total retail sales will be 15%between year 2005 and 2010.In 2010,the total retail sales will reach RMB 5.39 billion.The compounded annual growth rate of total retail sales will be 20%and the total retail sales will reach RMB 33.37 billion.,廊坊市市区商业网点规划布局Master Planning for Retail Submarkets,1,2,3,5,6,7,4,8,9,8,10,11,9,10,11,5,商业风光带 Commercial Scene Belt,各个商业中心的发展目标 1Development Goals for Each of the Retail Submarkets,明珠商圈 Mingzhu Submarket以新华路和金光道交叉口为中心 Center around Xinhua Road/Jinguang Road全市商业规模最大、档次最高、品种最齐全的商业区Largest scale of retail;high-end commercial area providing most comprehensive merchandise购物为主，兼有休闲、娱乐功能 Focus on retail with functions of entertainment and leisure,开发区会展中心区域商业中心 Development Zone Submarket以友谊路和艺术大道交叉点为中心 Around Youyi Road/Yishu Avenue会展、商贸、旅游、宾馆、餐饮、娱乐、休闲、以及文化特色为一体Mixed function of exhibition,trade,tourism,hotel,restaurant,entertainment,leisure,culture满足参加商务活动的外域人口及该区域内居民的消费需求Meet the consumption needs of attendees of business activities and local residents,开发区东方大学城区域商业中心 Oriental College Town Submarket开发区张衡路和毕升路交叉口 Zhangheng Road/Bisheng Road in the Development Zone为东方大学城及周边地区服务，以购物、餐饮、娱乐、文化、休闲等服务功能为主Serve College Town and surrounding area with functions in shopping,restaurant,entertainment,culture,and leisure,各个商业中心的发展目标 2Development Goals for Each of the Retail Submarkets,万庄新区区域商业中心 Wanzhuang Submarket围绕万庄新区行政中心一带 Around Administrative Center of Wanzhuang重点发展现代物流、文化、餐饮、娱乐、休闲等商贸设施，以满足该区域居民及流动人口购物需求 Emphasis on modern logistics,culture,catering,entertainment,leisure to meet demands of local residents and visitors,朝阳市场区域中心 Chaoyang Market Submarket以现在的朝阳市场为中心，规划范围为新华路以东，东环路以西，广阳道以南，金光道以北 Around existing Chaoyang Market and bounded by Xinhua Rd(east),East Ring Rd(west),Guangyang Avenue(south),and Jinguang Avenue(north).以购物、餐饮为主，满足该区域内居民消费需求 Mainly shopping and catering to serve local residents,常辛区域商业中心 Changxin Retail Submarket以常甫路与辛庄道交叉口为中心 Around Changpu Rd and Xinzhuang Avenue以购物、餐饮为主，满足该区域内居民消费需求 Mainly shopping and catering to serve local residents,龙河区域商业中心 Longhe Submarket建设路以西，银河路以东，南环路以南，龙河以北 Bounded by Jianshe Rd(West),Yinhe Rd(east),South Ring Rd(east),and Dragon River(north)服务铁路以南的商务、休闲、娱乐、综合性商业带 Mixed commercial area to serve business,leisure,entertainment,shopping needs of south railway area,6.3 廊坊市零售物业供应Langfang Retail Property Supply,廊坊市零售物业市场分区图Map of Existing Retail Submarkets,廊坊主城区Main City Area,廊坊市零售物业分区市场概述Overview of Langfang Retail Submarkets,共识别出五个现有的零售物业分区市场：明珠、朝阳、常辛、大学城、万庄。Mingzhu Retail Submarket is the traditional commercial center of Langfang.明珠市级商业中心拥有廊坊市所有的零售物业业态包括百货店，超级市场、专业店、专卖店等。明珠也是最早建立的商业中心（1993-1997年）。Mingzhu Retail Submarket has all the retail formats such as department store,supermarket,boutique store,etc.朝阳市级商业中心为新兴区域商业中心，代表零售物业为朝阳购物中心。沃尔玛超市2007年初入驻朝阳购物中心。朝阳商业中心吸引了很多非周边的居民，影响力逐渐扩大。As an emerging commercial center,Chaoyang Shopping Mall is the major retail project in Chaoyang Retail Submarket.常辛、大学城、万庄的商业中心仅仅是服务周边居民的需求为主。Changxin,College Town,and Wanzhuang retail submarkets serve mainly surrounding residents.万庄的商业中心成型于2000年，由于有限的人口，陈旧的社区，发展非常缓 慢。Wanzhuang retail submarket came into being in 2000.Because of limited population and under developed community,the market grew slowly.区域商业中心的形成初期以满足社区居民为主，但是好的社区和零售项目能够促使区域商业中心的影响力超出其所在的区域。Most district retail market focused on serving local residents initially.However,good community and quality retail projects allow district commercial center to influence residents beyond the district.,廊坊市零售物业分区市场概述Overview of Langfang Retail Submarkets,总体而言，廊坊市的大型零售项目分布集中度较低，市场竞争度一般。Overall,large retail projects are distributed evenly in Langfangs city area.广阳区拥有大部分的大型零售物业，而安次区仅有5个大型零售项目。Most large retail projects are located in Guangyang district while 5 are in Anci district.朝阳零售物业市场服务高端住宅区，道路交通状况较好，同时临近京津塘高速廊坊开发区出口，物业的标准也较高。朝阳市场吸引了电子、家具等专业店的较强的兴趣。Chaoyang retail submarket serves surrounding high-end community.Because of good accessibility and proximity to the exit of Jingjintang Highway,the submarket has attracted electronic and furniture specialty stores.明珠市级商业中心拥有廊坊市所有的零售物业业态包括百货店，超级市场、专业店、专卖店等。Mingzhu Retail Submarket has all the retail formats such as department store,supermarket,boutique store,etc.鉴于相当多的高端住宅区建立在北环线两侧，估计大型零售物业向北部点的趋势会加快。Recently,many high-end residential projects have been completed along North Ring Rd.It is expected that large retail projects will take place more in the north of the city.,1993至2007年，廊坊市年均供应大型零售面积17,827平方米。Annual supply of large retail project between 1993 and 2007 averages at 17,827 sqm.廊坊市的大型零售项目供应呈现较大波动，2002年供应的峰值，达到72,700平方米。Annual supply varied significantly with the peak of 72,700 sqm in year 2002.如图所示，供应的三个高峰年份是1996，2002和2007年。峰值的时间距离为5-6年。As shown by the chart,three supply peaks happened in year 1996,2002,and 2007.The distances between two consecutive peaks are 5 and 6 years.1998和1999年是市场的低谷，当年没有大型零售供应。Year 1998 and 1999 is the real estate downturn without any retail project supply.,廊坊市大型零售物业历史供应Historical Supply of Large Retail Projects,Note:Project information are updated as of the May of 2007.Source:Strategic Consulting,Research-Jones Lang LaSalle,廊坊市零售物业分业态历史供应Historical Supply by Retail Format and Year,1997年以前仅有4个零售项目入市，市场的竞争状态一般。传统的百货店占据了主要的零售业态形式。最早出现的大型零售是电器专业店。There were only 4 projects before 1997 and the retail formats mainly composed of department store.The earliest retail format is electronic specialty store.2000和2002年是市场供应的高峰。各种业态多个项目进入市场。超级市场作为社区服务的一部分也进入廊坊市场。2000年和2002年分别由6个和7个大型零售项目进入市场。Supply reached its peak in year 2000 and 2002 when a variety of projects of different retail formats came into the market.Supermarket entered Langfang market first in 2000.超市的供应持续稳定。2002年后每年都有超市项目进入市场，2005和2006年每年都有3个超市开业。Supply of supermarket has been stable since 2002.There were 3 supermarket projects entering the market for each of the year 2005 and 2006.,廊坊市未来零售物业市场格局Trends of Future Retail Market,零售市场发展的方向是向西北和东北。The development of retail market is northwestward and northeastward.万庄做为新兴城区在近期和远期共规划有3个大型零售项目。Three large retail projects have been planned for Wanzhuang until 2020.华为基地位于三个城区之间，远期规划有大型超市。Huawei base is situated in the central of the three City areas and expected to host a hypermarket in the long-term.未来大型零售物业的供应并不能改变零售市场相对分散的格局。The supply of future large retail projects will not alter the decentralized situation of the existing retail market.,廊坊市零售物业历史供应总结概述 Summary of Retail Supply,2005年廊坊市市区商业营业面积17.69万平方米；市区社会商品零售总额为26.8亿元。As of year 2005,the total retail area of Langfang citywide is 176,900 sqm;total retail sales is RMB 2.68 billion.2005年每人拥有的商业营业面积为0.35平方米。As of year 2005,retail area per capita citywide is 0.35 sqm.廊坊市大型零售物业（面积超过5000平方米）共有14个，主要集中在主城区。There are 14 large retail projects in Langfang(for area above 5,000 sqm),most of them are located in major city.廊坊市大中型零售物业（面积超过1000平方米）共有29个。超级市场和大型综合超市为主要的业态形式，共有16个项目。There are 29 retail projects with an area above 1,000 sqm.Supermarket and Hypermarket are the major retail formats with 16 projects.廊坊市明珠商业中心的零售项目硬件设施较为老化。As the largest local retailer in terms of annual sales,Mingzhu Department Store needs to upgrade its facilities.朝阳购物中心做为新入市的大型购物中心，硬件设施较好，管理较完善，人气聚集也较快。Opened in early 2007,Chaoyang Shopping Mall enjoys better facilities and relatively advanced management.It is increasingly visited by local people citywide.,6.4 廊坊市零售物业市场指标Market Indicators of Langfang Retail Properties,商业营业用房销售价格Sales Price of Property for Commercial Use,.Source:Statistic Bureau of Langfang,自2000年以来，商业营业用房的售价年平均增长11.3%。Since 2000,the compounded growth rate of Langfang properties for commercial use is 11.3%.2002年前售价增幅较小，平均为3%。The growth rate of sales price is 3%before 2002.2006年商业营业用房的平均价格为4,538元每平方米。As of year 2006,the average sales price for properties of commercial use is RMB 4,538 per sqm.,廊坊市商业营业用房售价Sales Price of Property for Commercial Use,零售物业市场指标调查总结Summary of Market Indicators,廊坊市零售物业的租金水平在不同地段和不同物业有显著的差异。Rents of Langfang retail properties vary significantly across different locations and types of property.明珠商业中心由于传统的中心位置和较大的人流，物业表现较好，租金最高，达到2.78元每平方米每天。Mingzhu retail submarket outperforms the market average.The rent is RMB 2.78 per sqm per day.尽管步行街的商业设施较好，但过量的同类物业供应压低了租金。租金水平仅为0.5元每平方米每天。不过投资人对此处物业的前景相当看好，最高售价达到了10,000元每平方米。Because of over supply,rent of New Century Pedestrian Street is only RMB 0.5 per sqm per day.However,investors are optimistic for the Street and sales prices reaches RMB 10,000 for some retail properties there.非核心商圈的零售物业表现一般，租金均低于1元每平方米每天。Retail properties situated out of core area of retail submarket perform not well.Average rent is lower than RMB 1 per sqm per day.期初收益率在这样一个成长中的市场中也有很大的差异，最高达到8.9%，而最低只有1.8%。Initial yields vary with high in 8.9%and low in 1.8%.平均而言，目前廊坊零售物业的租金为1.38元每平方米每天。On average,rent of Langfang retail properties is about RMB 1.38 per sqm per day.,6.5 廊坊市零售物业潜在消费者调查分析Analysis of Potential Retail Consumers Survey,消费者调查 Retail Survey,消费者调查目的：理解区域市场消费者消费习惯及倾向性，以及对本项目概念的测试,消费者调查样本：311份（廊坊）154份（北京）157份（天津）有效样本,消费者调查时间：2007年6月,消费者调查形式：街头拦访,The purpose of survey：To understand specific regional consumers consumption habits and preferences,and to exam their responses to the concept of this project,Sample number：311(Langfang)154(Beijing)157(Tianjin)effective samples,Time of survey：June 2007,Investigation method：Street interview,廊坊消费者调查总结Summary of Langfang Retail Survey,资料来源:仲量联行战略顾问部,典型的受访者为廊坊本地居民，不拥有汽车，家庭月收入在2001-4000元，一般职员/白领、高中毕业至大本学历，结婚并有小孩子，家庭成员有2-4人。The typical interviews are Langfang residents.Most of them do not have a car,and there salaries are around 2,001-4,000RMB.Usually they are clerks or white collars,secondary school graduates or graduates of university,married and have children.The number of family num