3430.C 人民币汇率变动对我国对外贸易的影响研究 英语文献.doc
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1、 题目:人民币汇率变动对我国对外贸易的影响研究英文文献资料:First, the core of foreign exchange reform, performance and trend analysis (A) of the RMB exchange reform in 2005 the core in the following aspects: First, the exchange rate formation mechanism reform. Since July 21, 2005, the RMB started to practice market-based, with
2、reference to a basket of currencies, there is managed floating exchange rate system. Second, the appropriate release of the RMB appreciation. namely, the appreciation of the yuan currency to make small adjustments to the yuan against the U.S. dollar by 2.1%. The third is due to expand the floating r
3、ange of RMB exchange rate. to allow the yuan-dollar exchange rate volatility for the day plus or minus 0.3%; and non-dollar currencies to the yuan exchange rate floating range extended to 3%; to expand the banks in the pricing of rights, cash and cash sale price of the benchmark rate down 1% -4% or
4、less by the banks to decide, but also multi-day price. (B) after performance of the RMB exchange reform: exchange rate flexibility has become pronounced and the trade surplus continued to expand. RMB exchange reform in 14 months, the yuan-dollar exchange rate movements, and basic show rose slipped t
5、he characteristics of the slow movement of its own run: (1) slow its own run. from the exchange rate reform to September 21, 2006 in 291 trading days, only 2 days less than 8.11, the lowest for the July 27, 2005 of 8.1128, compared with 0.03% 8.11 depreciation, the maximum for the September 14, 2006
6、 of 7.9461, compared with 8.11 l 2.06%, total volatility is 2%. (2) highlighted the exchange rate flexibility to achieve a two-way floating. such as: the dollar, compared with the previous trading day, the yuan in 291 Japan has 191 trading days trading float, 100 trading days to float downward. (3)
7、trade surplus continued to expand. In 2005 Chinas trade surplus up to 101.9 billion U.S. dollars, of which the trade surplus reached 62.3 billion U.S. dollars in the second half than before the exchange reform trade surplus of 39.6 billion U.S. dollars for half a year more than 22.6 billion U.S. dol
8、lars. (C) of the RMB exchange rate changes of the future trend analysis. Either the short or medium to long term appreciation of the RMB exchange rate remains largely expected: One. Growing balance of payments surplus is the result of the RMB exchange rate, the expected short-term appreciation of th
9、e main factors. According to the relevant state data, in 2005 Chinas trade surplus up to 101.9 billion U.S. dollars, capital account surplus has reached 63 billion U.S. dollars; 1, 2006 -8 months were still a trade surplus totaled 95.65 billion U.S. dollars and the introduction of FDI371.92 billion
10、U.S. dollars, up 75% over the same period the previous year and 5.8%. estimated annual trade surplus in 2006 will more than 140 billion U.S. dollars, to the end of 2006 foreign exchange reserves will be nearly 1 trillion dollars. the huge balance of payments surplus and foreign exchange reserves dou
11、ble to form a strong appreciation of the yuan is expected to: Asian Development Bank forecast 5.8% during the year about the yuan to appreciate; leading global investment bank Lehman Brothers forecast U.S. dollar against the yuan by the end of will reach 7.8. 2. Nominal exchange rates are still lowe
12、r than the actual balance. In recent years, vast majority of experts and scholars both at home and abroad that the yuan nominal exchange rates have a greater degree of underestimation. Such as: Zhang Zhibo (2005) research results show that, according to the relative purchasing power parity theory Me
13、eting the real equilibrium exchange rate of RMB to change before 6.97, if the official exchange rate in 1997 as the base rate estimate was 7.3; Lu Zhiyong et al (2005) that the RMB exchange reform before the actual 15% -20% undervalued; U.S. officials and Most scholars generally believe that the yua
14、n is undervalued real -25%, 15%. to September 21, 2006, compared with the prior foreign exchange reform, the RMB appreciation of the actual accumulated only 4.16%. 3. Offshore RMB NDF prices show the expected appreciation of the RMB. Foreign exchange reform since the offshore NDF market, one-year do
15、llar / yuan NDF discount is basically over in 3000, despite the premium from the July 22 high of around 4,000 points contraction for the 31 October of 2920 points, but thereafter but there is growing, to September 19, 2006 up to 3500 points. As the offshore RMB NDF and domestic foreign exchange mark
16、et and domestic and foreign interest rate transmission mechanism is not effective, the RMB NDF offset interest rate parity does not meet the RMB NDF market prices reflect the markets equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB to judge. 4. In the long run, sound economic growth momentum strong support for
17、 the RMB exchange rate expectations. Our 1979-2004 annual average economic growth rate up to 9.6%, much higher than the same period in the U.S. and world growth. Asian Development Bank expects China 2006 and 2007 the economy will grow by 10% and 9.5%. Taking all factors, it is estimated in the futur
18、e a longer period (eg 5-10 years) the Chinese economy is still possible to achieve average annual growth rate of around 7%, good economic growth support long-term strength of the RMB exchange rate expectations. Second, Chinas foreign exchange reform on the influence of foreign trade enterprises (A)
19、Based on the analysis of import and export elasticity theory. The traditional theory is that exchange rate flexibility, exchange rate changes on the impact of trade is conditional, it depends on the elasticity of demand for their export and import demand elasticities. But many scholars believe that
20、Chinas import and export elasticities and the absolute value is less than or close to 1, basically does not meet the Marshall - Lerner condition, such as: Zhang (2001) by regression analysis of 1985-1998 data obtained Chinas progress, the export elasticity was -0.0566 and -0.0057, import and export
21、flexibility, and the absolute value is only 0.0623. in accordance with the conclusions inferred rise in the RMBs rise, Chinas import and export of devaluation on the trade balance does not have to improve the effect. In addition, some experts calculated the absolute value of the import and export el
22、asticities and greater than 1 (Daizu Xiang, 1997; Pham, 2004, etc.). However, Marshall - Lerner condition is usually applied to trade a small country, while opening up economic power may not be applicable, such as: Pham (2004) on the view that Marshall - Lerner condition does not apply to China. Acc
23、ording to Pham calculated long-term export elasticity of -0.8579 in China, the absolute value of less than 1, indicating the price appreciation of the renminbi to increase in the rate of exports over exports the rate of decrease, but increased exports, assuming a 10% revaluation would make Chinese e
24、xports increased 1.421%, the RMB appreciation will lead to further increase Chinas trade surplus. (B) Based on the characteristics of processing trade, significant type structure of import and export trade. 1. Chinas foreign trade structure: type characteristics of processing trade. Processing trade
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