布鲁金斯学会-2022财年美国军队：海军（英）-38正式版.docx

NOVEMBER2021U.S.MilitaryForcesinFY2022NavyMarkF.CancianThispaperispartofU.S.MilitaryForcesinFY2022.ThereisbipartisansupporttoexpandtheNavy,butlimitedbudgetsandearlyretirements-i4divcstingtoinvcsf,一makeachievingthatgoaldifficult.TheBidcnadministration'semergingfleetplanincorporatessmallershipsandlargenumbersofunmannedsystems,asproposedbymanystrategists,buthighcosts,productionlimitations,andcongressionaloppositionmaypreventfullimplementation.KEYTAKEAWAYSInFY2022,fleetsizestaysaboutthesame,at296ships.Previouslyorderedshipsarriveinlargenumbers,buttheNavyretires15ships,10early.Navyactive-dutypersonneldecreaseby1,600to346,200.,ShipnumbersmattertotheNavybecauseofhighday-to-daydemandsforitsforcesforcrisisresponse,alliedandpartnerengagement,conventionaldeterrence,andongoingregionalconflicts.Thefuturefleetarchitecture-itssizeandcomposition-remainsaworkinprogress.TheTrumpadministration's355-shipgoalwasdeemedinfeasiblebecauseofitshighcostandoutmodedoperationalconcepts.Attheendofitsterm,theTrumpadministrationarticulatedanewvisionincorporatingunmannedsystemsanddistributedcapabilities.TheBidenadministrationpublishedasimilararchitecture,butsmallerandwithrangesforshipnumbers.Costisaproblemwithallofthesenotionalarchitecturesbecausetheyrequirelargefundingincreaseswhichmaynotoccur.Nevertheless,someinsightsareemerging:Carriers:Recentforcestructureproposalshaveimpliedareductioninthenumberofcarriers.However,contractualcommitmentsandpoliticalconstraintsmayhavelockedtheNavyintothepresentcarrierforceformanyyearsregardlessofstrategicconsiderations.Smallcarriersseemtoberecedingintothebackgroundonceagain.CSIS,LargeSurfaceCombatants:Futurearchitecturesenvisiondeepcutstothisfleet,implyingproductioncutbacksandmanyearlyretirements.However,industrialbaseandstrategicconcernsaboutshrinkingfleetsizewillclashwiththenewgoals.CFNTFRFURSTRATFGlcINTERNATIONALSTUDIES SmallSurfaceCombatants:Allthefuturefleetarchitecturesshowanincrease,theonlyquestionbeinghowmuchofanincreaseandhowfast. AmphibiousShips:Newamphibiousconceptsandtheintroductionofasmallamphibiousshipimplyreductionsinthenumberoflargeamphibiousships.However,aswiththelargesurfacecombatants,industrialbaseinterestswillclashwiththenewandlowergoals. AttackSubmarines:Allfuturearchitecturesenvisionanincreaseinthesizeoftheattacksubmarinefleet.However,slowproductioninthe1990sandproductioncapacitylimitstodaywilllimitfleetsizeuntilthe2040s. BallisticMissileSubmarines:TheColumbia-classballisticmissilesubmarineprogram,theNavy,shighest-priorityprogram,remainsonscheduleand(generally)attargetcostbutwithsomerisk.AnyprogramdelaywoulddisrupttheU.S.nucleardeterrent,whileanycostincreasewoulddisrupteveryothershipbuildingprogram. UnmannedSurfaceandUnderseaVessels:ThesefigureprominentlyinNavyarchitectures,butthesystemsremainexperimentalandnoneofthelargerprogramshaveaproductionplan.TheFY2022budgetseemstoentailapauseindevelopment.Navalaviationisgenerallyingoodshape,withstableinventoriesandacceptableaveragefleetages.However,itremainsfocusedonmannedplatforms.EndStrengthinFY2022Table1:NavyEndStrength-Active,Reserve,andCiviliansActiveNavyEndStrengthNavyReserveEndStrengthCivilianFull-timeEquivalentsFY2021Enacted347,80058,800199,051FY2022Request346,20058,300200,192ChangefromFY2020-1,600-500+1,141Source:DepartmentoftheNavy,HighlightsofTheDepartmentoftheNavyFY2022Budget(Washington,DC:DepartmentofDefense,2021),ActiveEndStrengthdatainFigure7.2,ReserveEndStrengthdatainFigure7.3,CiviliandatainFigure7.10(includesdirectandindirecthiresbutexcludesMarineCorpscivilians),httpsy/www.secnav.Navy.mil/fma/fmb/Documents/22pres./Highlights_Book.pdf.Navypersonnellevelshavebeenonarollercoaster,reachingapost-ColdWarhighof383,000inFY2002andalowof318,000inFY2012.Thenumberhascreptbackup,buttheNavyisstillfarbelowitspre-9/11size.However,thenumberofsailorstracksroughlytothenumberofshipsinthefleet(seeFigure1).Figure1:NavyActive-DutyPersonnel,1999-2022400380360340320300SSoSSSSSM u><ooo>ocMActual-FY2022BudgetSource:OfficeoftheUnderSecretaryofDefense(Comptroller).NationalDefenseBudgetEstimatesforFY2022(Washington.DC:DepartmentofDefense,August2021),Table7-5:DepartmentofDefenseManpower,258-60,httpsmptroller.defense.govPortals45Documentsdefbudget/FY2022/FY22_Green_Book.pdf.TheNavyprojectsthatactive-dutyendstrengthwilldeclineslightlyinFY2022to346,200.ThisreflectstheNavy'snear-termplantoretireoldershipswithlargecrews.AfewNavypersonnelwilltransfertotheSpaceForceinFY2022,butmajordecisionsherelieinthefuture.TheFY2020andFY2021projectionshadshowncontinuedpersonnelgrowth.Figure2:NavyReservePersonnel,1989-2022160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,00019891990199319961999200220052008201120142017202020212022FY 2021 BudgetNavyReserveEndStrengthSource:DepartmentoftheNavy,HighlightsofTheDepartmentoftheNavyFY2022Budget(Washington,DC:DepartmentofDefense,2021),Figure7.3,https7vww.secnav.Navy.milfmcfmWDocumentSif22prSHighlightsBook.pdf;andpreviousyears'highlightsdocuments.1. ,SpaceForceSelectsover900toTransferinFY22,"U.S.SpaceForce,September30,2021,https:/www.spaceforce.mil/News/Articlc2793972spacc-frcc-sclccts-morc-than-900-pcrsonncl-to-lransfcr-fy22.Although900personnelwereselected,nearlyallwerefrom(heArmy.Althoughitsendstrengthhasbeenroughlystablesince2014,theNavyReservewillshrinkby500sailorsto58,300inFY2022.Overthelongterm,theNavyReservehasbeenshrinking,unlikeotherDepartmentofDefense(DOD)reservecomponents.Thislong-termdeclineresultsfromtheretirementofallNavyReserveshipsandmanyNavyReserveaircraft,sotheremainingforcesaremainlyforlogisticsandsupport.Billetsforstaffaugmentationarebeingeliminated.Whiletheseremainingfunctionshaveanimportantrole,itismuchnarrowercomparedtothereservecomponentsofothersen,ices.UnliketheArmyandAirForce,theNavyandtheMarineCorpshavenotincreasedthenumberofreserviststocompensateforconstraintsonthenumberofactive-dutypersonnel.Figure3:NavyCivilianWorkforce,FY2015-FY2022205,000200,000195,000190,000185,000180,000175,000170,000165,000160,000FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22Source:DepartmentoftheNavy,HighlightsofTheDepartmentoftheNaVyFY2022Budget(Washington,DC:DepartmentofDefense,2021),7-12,https"WWW.secnav.Navy.mil/fmc/fmb/Documenls/22pres/HighIights_Book.pdf；andpreviousyears'highlightsdocuments.ThenumberofNavyciviliansincreasesby1,100inFY2022,continuingalong-termincrease,thoughataslowerrate.TheNavyappearstobeusingcivilianstooffsetconstraintsonmilitarypersonnel.Thisisasensiblepolicybecauseciviliansarelessexpensivethanmilitarypersonnel;stayintheirjobslonger,resultingindeeperexpertise;andhaveamoreflexiblepersonnelsysteminthathealthandagerequirementsarenotasstringentasforthemilitary.ThisplannedincreaseisatoddswiththeNavy,srecentannouncementaboutcutting1,000civilianjobsfrominstallationsasabudget-savingmove.Becausethecutswouldaffectpopularsupportactivities(beachesandgyms)aswellasshipoperations,expectcontinueddiscussioninthisarea.：(AlaterchapterinthisserieswillconsiderthecivilianworkforceDOD-wide.)2. SamLaGrone,'NavyPlanstoCut1,000CivilianJobs,CloseU.S.BaseLibrariesin$280MCostSavingsDrive/,USNINews,September22,2021,https:/news.usni.org/2021/09/22/navy-plans-to-cut-1000-civilian-jobs-close-u-s-base-libraries-in-280m-cost-savings-drive.Figure4:CivilianManpowerWorkAreas,FY2022Source:DepartmentoftheNavy,HighlightsofTheDepartmentoftheNavyFY2022Budget(Washington,DC:DepartmentofDefense,2021),7-9,https:/www.secnav.Navy.mil/fmc/fmb/Document&/22pres/Highlights_Book.pdf.TheNavy,likeDODingeneral,emphasizesthatmostciviliansworkoutsideWashingtonandareacriticalelementofreadinessbecauseoftheworktheydoonfacilitiesandmaintenance.FleetSizeinFY2022Tounderstandthefuturefleet,theplacetostartistheFY2022budgetproposal.ThepresidentsbudgetproposestoconstructonlyeightshipsinFY2022:twoSSN-774submarines,oneDDG-51destroyer,oneFFG-62frigate,oneoiler,twotowing/salvage/rescueships,andoneoceansurveillanceship.Althoughallcountasbattleforceships,onlyfourarecombatants.Congressmightaddshipsinitsfinalbillsasitcustomarilydoes,anotherdestroyerbeingthemostlikelyaddition,butthenumberofshipsfundedinFY2022willbelowcomparedwithrecentshipbuildingbudgets.?ThereasonforthelownumberisthattheNavyshipbuildingaccountdeclinesfrom$23.3billioninFY2021to$22.6billioninFY2022.ThisreflectstheoveralldeclineintheDODbudget.(Formoreinformationonthispoint,seethebudgetandstrategyoverviewchapter.)Table2:ImpliedFleetSizeforShipbuildingRateandServiceLifeShipConstructionZYearAveragelifeof30yrsAveragelifeof35yrsAveragelifeof40yrs8(FY2022rate)240280320Source:DepartmentoftheNavy,HighlightsoftheDepartmentoftheNavyFY2022Budget(Washington,DC:DepartmentofDefense.2021),2-3,https:WWW.secnav.Navy.mil/fmc/fmb/DoCUments/22presZHighlights_Book.pdf.3. BoththeSenateandtheHouseauthorizationactsincludemoneyforaseconddestroyer.However,thatdependsonthehighertopline,whichauthorizationcommitteesmightnotsupport.SenateArmedServicesCommittee,FY2022NationalDefenseAuthorizationAci(Washington,DC:September2021),htips:WWW.armed-services.senaie.gov/imo/media/doc/FY22%20NDAA%20Execulive%20Summary.pdf:andHouseArmedServicesCommittee,SununaryoftheNationalDefenseAuthorizationActforFY2022(Washington.DC:AUgUSt2021),https:/armcdscrviccs.housc.gOv/_cachc/filcs/l/3/13abf96a-7f26-48fO-8c54-c6b6dIlc27150E2DB3E3B22B70F6BDAB86B4D728A433.202l0830-fy22-ndaa-full-committcc-summary-final.pdf.Table2calculatesfleetsizewithdifferentassumptionsaboutsen,icelife.Althoughbuildingrateswillchangeovertime,thecalculationgivesinsightintotheimpliedlong-termfleetsizegiventoday'sbudget.ThetableshowsthattheNavywillneedtoincreaseitsbuildingrateunlessitholdsontoitsshipsforalongtime.Historically,theNavyhastendedtoretireshipsearlybecauseofobsolescenceorbudgetpressures.ThistendencytoretireshipsearlyappearsintheFY2022budget.Tosavemoneyoverthelongterm,thebudgetproposesearlyretirementforfiveCG-47cruisers,onedocklandingship(LSD),andfourlittoralcombatships(LCSs),TheNavyhaswantedtoretirethesecruisersandamphibiousshipsformanyyears,arguingthattheyaretooexpensivetomodernize.Congresshasoftenpushedback,arguingthattheNavyneedsnumberstomeetitsglobalcommitments(seediscussionbelow).TheLCSsproposedtorretirementarcnotold,onebeingcommissionedin2017.TheNavyarguesthatupgradingthemtothecurrentconfigurationwouldbetooexpensive.ThattheNavyisproposingtoretirethemsoearlyisastatementoftheprogram'sshortfalls.The*divesttoinvest''strategy-wherebytheser,icesretirecurrentcapabilitiesandinvestthefundsinfuturecapabilitiesmayworkinthelongterm,butintheshortterm,theNavyhastheworstofbothworlds:aconstrainedshipbuildingplanandasmallerfleet.Thefirstchapterinthisseries,thebudgetandstrategyover,iew,describesthisstrategyindetail.Rightlyorwrongly,theshipcountisoftenusedasameasureofNavycapacity,soFigure5getsalotofattentionsThetotalnumberofshipsinthefleetincreasesslightlyinFY2022,from294inFY2021to296,aspreviouslyfundedshipsjointhefleet,buttheFY2021planhadbeentogrowto306.Intheshortterm,theNavyhastheworstofbothworlds:aconstrainedshipbuildingplanandasmallerfleet.4. AdmiralJamesWinncfcld.forone.arguesthatfocusonshipcountdistortsdecisionmaking.SccJamesWinncfcld."ChartingaNewCoursefortheU.S.Navy,"BostonGlobe,November8,2015,Figure5:TotalNavyActiveShips,1999-2022350Figure 6: Ship Count and Tonnage of Navy Battle Force, 1988, 1996, 2022(SUo=-M)6BUU0JLiz2506OLcJCobln9ZCO6OLCMCObln9Z86OLCM6OOOOOOOOoOLLLLLLLLL_CMCJCM>oooooooooooooooooooooooLCxJCMCSJC1CJO4CSJOJeXJOJZCXJOJCXJCMZCXJeMzCXJOJCXJOJNote:Thesharpdipinshipcountfrom2014to2015wasduetotheretirementofthelastFFG-7OliverHazardPerry-classfrigatesandtotheNavychangingitscountingrulesbrieflyin2014toinclude,andthenexcludein2015,patrolastalcraftandhospitalships.SeeSydneyJ.Freedberg1Jr."OutrageOnCapitolHillAsNavyChangesShip-CountingRules,"BreakingDefense,March11,2014,https:/breakingdefense.coV201403outrage-on-capitol-hill-as-Navy-changes-ship-counting-11jes.Source:Shipcount1999-2016datafromU.S.ShipForceLevels:1886toPresent,"NavalHistoryandHeritageCommand,https:/www.history.Navy.mil/research/histories/ship-histories/us-ship-force-levels.html#2000.Currentandprojectedshipcountfrom*FY2022President'sBudget,"DepartmentoftheNavy,n.d.t5,15,httpsy/www.secnav.navy.mil/fmc/fmb/Documents/22pres/DON_Press_Brief.pdf.700600500或400°Z300SI200100OSource:Shipnumbers:"U.S.ShipForceLevels:1886toPresent,"NavalHistoryandHeritageCommand,https.,www.history.navy.mil/researchhistoriesshiphistoriesus-shipforcelvels.html;and-FY2022PresidentsBudget,"DepartmentoftheNavy,n.d.,https7www.SeCnaV.navy.mil/fmc/fmb/DoCUment$/22PreSyDON_Press_Brief.pdf；DepartmentoftheNavy.TonnagefromRichardSharpe,Jane'sFightingShips1988(NewYork:Jane'sPub.,1988);RichardSharpe,Jane'sFightingShips1996(NewYork:Jane,sPub.,1996);StephenSaunders,Jane'sFightingShips2019-2020(NewYork:Jane'sPub.,2019);and-U.S.NavyShips,"U.S.Navy,n.d.,https:/www.Navy.miVNavydata/our_ships.asp.Inpart,thedeclineinshipnumbersresultedfromNavydecisionstobuybigger,morecapable,andmoreexpensiveships.Asthechartontonnageshows,theFY2022fleetwillhave52percentofthenumberofshipsof1988(296versus565)but83percentofthetonnage.T(lay,sDDG-51destroyer(FlightIIA)displaces9,700tons,twicethetonnageofa1980sCharlesF.Adams-classdestroyerandfourtimesthetonnageofaWorldWarIIFletcher-classdestroyer(2,500tons).Indeed,theDDG-51hasthetonnageofaWorldWarIIcruiser.Theincreasedsizeproducesgreatercapabilityintheindividualship,butshipscanonlybeinoneplaceatatime.Inpart,thedeclineinshipnumbersresultedfromNavydecisionstobuybigger,morecapable,andmoreexpensiveships.TheUnrelentingDemandsofCurrentOperationsFleetsizemattersbecauseitsupportsthelevelofnavaldeployments,butitisintensionwiththe“divesttoinvesf,strategy.IntheirstatementstoCongress,boththeactingsecretaryoftheNavyandthechiefofnavaloperationsnotedthattheNavyisa44globalforcewithglobalresponsibilities.,5TheCNONAVPLANmakesthebroadargument:“Deployedforward,wcprovideU.S.leaderswithquickresponseoptionsfornearlyanychallenge一fromconfrontingrivalstohelpinglocalpopulationsrecoverfromnaturaldisasters.Ourcombat-crediblepresencecreatesandmaintainsinfluenceabroadandensurescriticalwaterwaysremainopenforCOmmerCe.'7Asaresult,theaveragenumberofshipsdeployedhasremainedatthecurrentlevelofabout100forthreedecades,eventhoughthenumberofshipshasdeclinedovertime.TherecentneedtodeploytoEurope(includingintheArcticandMediterranean),theaterslargelyignoredsincetheendoftheColdWar.addstodemands.TobettercoverEuropeandtheAtlantic,theNavyreactivatedtheSecondFleetheadquartersinNorfolk.Figure 7: NavyFleetSizeandDeploymentLevelssds A>eN >0<«0160050040030020010006CO666666Z 6 - COZ 6 V CO666 O O OOOLLLLL CXJ660 OOO O O OO OO OL L OJ CM OJ UO CM CM CMCxJCMgeMZCM CM600.C500e400O300y200g