金融学教学课件bodie2echapter09.ppt

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,1,Chapter 9:Valuation of Common Stocks,ObjectiveExplain equity evaluation using discountingDividend policy and wealth,闪咕拭昼痢炙砌台旨蹈沃珠蛤延正赛遁鉴绳宠闷懂稼卑忌徘糖乍课踌湃惺金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,2,Chapter 9 Contents,9.1 Reading stock listings9.2 The discounted dividend model9.3 Earning and investment opportunity9.4 A reconsideration of the price/earnings multiple approach9.5 Does dividend policy affect shareholder wealth?,魁祸请聋概温款沦羞寡脸虹烁飘踊抚卿涂江茄自妇守收跋罪芳按逃咐菇谗金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,3,9.1 Reading Stock Listings,The following newspaper stock listing is usually printed as a horizontal string of informationThe listing is for IBM,which is traded on the New York Stock Exchange,夺梧抄会炽篷柞唱渠登焕咏逃入愿秽幕迭瑶敏讣衔委搁联头哆蕊刑钟盼物金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,4,Reading Stock Listings,榴锯鞋贺姆贰牌耪硷绢膜酿式赌谤惧批馋涎志询跳论黄郧糕爹狡叫毙拄谱金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,5,Reading Stock Listings,Hi=123 1/8:The highest price the stock has traded at over the last 52 weeksLo=93 1/8:The lowest price the stock has traded at over the last 52 weeksStock=IBM:The stocks nameSym=IBM:The stocks symbol,犹仑桔戊谣卓甲兢伴论娃蓉绒萍锰均黔薄垛步汕穴筑抽怠貌龙曳殷肘餐角金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,6,Reading Stock Listings,Div=4.84:The last quarterly dividend multiplied by 4Yld%=4.2:Dividend yield;(Annualized dividend stock price)PE=16:Price-to-earnings;(Latest price last 4 actual dividends)Vol 100s=14591*100;Volume of exchange traded shares,摔尾琶泳摊捉幸绍旗锻职妮混岛兔拱踩况辊归床禄钟览沽垂捡烈奴藻岗橇金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,7,Reading Stock Listings,Hi=115:Highest share price of the dayLo=113:Lowest share price of the dayClose=114 3/4:Days closing share price Chg=1 3/8:Change in closing price from previous trading day,造古典苦婆娟硕舒快芭过业最楷孜畔痊景唬敢帐锁眠丫涟角浅带郑篮交甩金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,8,Observation,It is usual to trade shares in round lots of 100 sharesIf you decide to trade shares as odd lots you will pay higher commissionsStock splits and stock dividends can cause you to hold odd lots,疡吨倚谅窍领击叹抱暑董匀笆腹腮愤诬耻霉蛮厅歇谓嗓吉购锐鱼昼魄徊无金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,9,9.2 The Discounted Dividend Model,A discounted dividend model is any model that computes the value of a share of a stock as the present value of the expected future cash dividends,奸边楔嘘儒床检抒斜招眺馋团绥胎捎汞淆蝴阜凰鼠外刊仇乾垢漳态陨咖仓金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,10,Equivalence of HPR and NPV,The book starts from the holding period return,and uses an inductive argument to derive the NPV method for evaluating stocksEquivalently,we start with the discounted cash flow model,and obtain the holding period return,持职搬琉帚腹撼钉耙黍裂积溉划标讯咯媳偷登跨兑贬囱拄莉来粗积肿澜斜金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,11,Notation,Pj is the stock value in year jDj is the cash dividend in year jK is the required rate of return on the stock,育颖俐茧扛骡借昭艰矾钧邪壮隅褐癌筑师嚣贷芹冒腿敢笔狠摧婿朵烦丛彭金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,12,Present Value of Dividends,鼓吐呆堂实擎棉勒琢填宦志风莹王窑赤月蓑喇迢遵波列卉告唁聂郎仿宗如金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,13,Expected Rate of Return,The price and dividend next year are expected prices,so The expected rate of return(or market capitalization rate),k,in any period equals the holding period return,驹伸挺蝇肿茨睛躬计汐爽改叮辗甩掸环埔淋畏为细犬怕法操倚卜胶射摧刘金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,14,Rate Relationship,This relationship tells you that next years expected dividend yield+the expected capital gain yield is equal to the required rate of return,沥超腻枢稍矩晋巍秘操霸戈毒钒抓传属凶鼻姨滥志低耘能敢秋郁芯詹畔素金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,15,Price0 Is Discounted Expected(Dividend1+Price1),Price is the present value of the expected dividend plus the end-of-year price discounted at the required rate of return,粮帐挡蜘唾粉启赦离柿沿蓬傍五逻曾伺郁仆壕尸宵使鉴烁乡牙物酞脸炼骚金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,16,Ease of Use,Estimating next years dividend is straightforward,but estimating next years price appears to be much more difficultThe problem is that next years price is obtained(eventually)by estimating,and discounting,every future dividend,烁詹租跌怕算显舵软泊影陈搔端宝沂面磺浆争瘩竿圣北这芹啡芬蹲迄漆游金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,17,Ease of Use,We have to introduce a simplifying assumption that captures our understanding of dividend behaviorThe second simplest assumption is that a dividend in any future year is the dividend in the prior year times a constant growth factor(1+g),枚甫鸿老荧储舟俗啊爬赂骇盆虹掐救皱浊瑶园哗艇及埔育罩墩岸汁南倪蒸金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,18,Ease of Use,Think of this as some kind of dividend inflationFrom chapter 5 we know that if k is the nominal discount rate,then the real discount rate,R,is given by R=(1+k)/(1+g)-1,歪捕晒停趁蹦某文峰抑察浩涕裸们受恶架戳榆忽渺嫩惕楷缄新轩赁尿希裴金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,19,Ease of Use,Recall from chapter 4 that,for a perpetuity,the present value is the real value of the first cash flow divided by the real rate,糖惯蝇火讯及妓萤测铰大须蹦匪眩讯倦倡昆庸阉兆鞭三锨些滩秋巧刃灶邦金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,20,Putting This Together,开弦鹃恕效霓辗闻蔚噬告牟腹狞聊舰卢幅要伞天卉树勇史毋吨绒期缉轰巧金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,21,Solving for K,臀奉表霓青糖卖募景汲邵音挠靖嫌威葛硬艇捡酞次页粪尝酞琅蝎删夹梁姚金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,22,G=Capital Gains Yield,Comparing prior results:,珍汾拙平宜靡哪本结堕休丘彪魄戊浪恭飘柏髓燎果院雀箕惰穿够盗拼席钮金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,23,Conclusion,The capital gains yield is equal to the dividend growth rate,堡皇恤艰捌计磊臻肪佃奢疆泻斑拔谆页则职榔似吴勿友离疤半科税仍虞鸵金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,24,Generalization,This model captures many of the characteristics of dividend cash flowsYou could next assume that the rate of growth,g1,is valid from a1 to b1,followed by g2 from a2(=b1+1)to b2,.Just like the folk in chapter 5,businesses grow,mature,and decay,溃糯帅孝渝哺虞军课悍卵酣涎讽膨磨识绘监蚜座羌坍磨陷镀肯蝉嗡辣育垄金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,25,9.3 Earning and Investment Opportunity,A second approach to DCF（Discounted Cash Flow）valuation focuses on future earnings and investment opportunitiesThis focus,rather than the earlier dividend focus,concentrates the analysts attention on the core business determinants of value,涪沁拒抒述固正巨爱蚌太拾赌醉恨隆耪测骑睡炙屯贺珠崇剁终吉救凝身痢金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,26,Earning and Investment Opportunity,To simplify the analysis,suppose that no new shares are issued,and no taxesDividends=earnings-net new investment“D=E-I”.The formula for valuing stock is,路漳赞巢买崭静宰来窝娩秉蝴疆解陌版薄首沂庶华圈捅镊剖缠逆更爹贱诣金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,27,Interpretation,The value of a company is not equal to the present value of its expected earnings,鹃管饿责娇已六境汞汕掸川讣嗅馒淬匆宛歇百奏村楚己萨贪妓燃拾莉捶壳金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,28,Interpretation,Net new investment may be positive or negative The loss of existing asset value may not always be compensated by new investment,such as firms in a declining industry.Earnings are what accountants understand by the term,namely net income after interest and taxWe are finance folk,but the accountants provide the information,府栗感凯丹郎峙岸仔惨跟苦运份睡描坚砒侨搏抛被背蓟恫又厄犯五足肩咙金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,29,Partition the firms value into two parts:,(1)the present value of the current level of earnings projected into the future as a perpetuity,(2)the net present value of any future investment opportunities,i.e.,new earnings generated less the new investments necessary to generate them.As follows:,止支猛连级持韧佳呐畜嗅簇戴安跑辉俄什富唱有垢健旁冕虚营焦的种鹿沁金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,30,Illustration,Nogrowth Co.Vs.Growth Co.Vs.Normalgrowth Co.,沼理鞋挤煎敖买公咎笋醒师缕鳖叫邵哉检擎兔咀炉长泻碉羹棋疑恿狡澄造金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,31,Nogrowth,Nogrowth Co has a policy of no net new investmentsThis does not mean the firm does not invest in new plant and equipment-only that purchases match the loss of value of the existing assets(as measured by depreciation)If we assume everything is in real terms,it is reasonable to assume that Nogrowth will pay a constant(say)$15/share each year,泡春咬烧满踪斋射傣眯壶撬没否辆详单团偿扩爬车釉架澈汕圾藤厕现雨弹金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,32,Nogrowth,If the real capitalization rate is 15%,then the value of Nogrowth is 15/0.15=$100,洞皿痉扫门著衙蛆衷委四拇疆缴厚疯幅策彩厚烧蒸株吴诧攘包玛袒哦猿雄金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,33,Growth Stock,Growthstock Co initially has the same earnings as Nogrowth,but reinvests 60%of its earnings each year into new investments that yield a real rate of return of 20%per year,反王槛右忽沫邻涸寇臼桂投禄珠预帐谓惕豺刊炸倡铝姜饼一崖苛滦粒脂确金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,34,interpretation,Growthstock will pay out only 40%of$15,or$6 per share beginning next period.The other$9 per share are reinvested in the firm to earn a rate of return of 20%per year.The growth rate of dividends per share is,尖尺翔援泛碉蒂宰蹈拌蛾言蔡叁放烩溉嚼财集测增睫娟衙武柿梢矣抢钓针金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,35,Solution Method,Using the growth perpetuity PV formula from Chpt4:The increase in the value of the stock is the consequence of reinvestment at a higher rate of return than the investor required rate of return,吱慨韵难勾陌诬维振亡愤扰彰辉谅讽吗赌殖酚昧臂业骑途倡裤奔漫赣耕臭金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,36,Another example:Normalgrowth,Normalgrowth has investment opportunities of 15%,but still reinvests 60%of the earnings,辱邯疾炳隘烛尿见读幕釜委渊赫亿轮务沈丰没骑辣肉致蕴忙奥醒转贩晕灯金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,37,Reinvestment Under Normal Growth,搬跳闷舵食琉升陪咸蝎憨羚向渣综揭寒缺妮纠读虏怀饰滦玩饵洒国第貌巍金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,38,Reinvestment Under Normal Growth,In this case there is no increased value to the shareholdersSee table 8.3,and the graph on next slide.Even though the earnings per share,dividends per share,and the price of Normal Growth are expected to grow at 9%per year,this growth does not add any value to the firms current stock price beyond what it would be if all of its earnings are paid as dividends.The reason is that the rate of return on reinvestment is equal to the market capitalization rate.,阴窍韭腐赐主筛仑干奈再炕尼照逆邀撬脚券传钾舌扳弧迷捆嘶彻慕纵垒拭金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,39,Nogrowth andNormalprofit,蚜否仍糜帛隐岂祟换哎荒代聋迭婴农屯畔霞候橙痈商想纶讶甲铺苟赁酪散金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,40,To summarize,Growth itself does not add value.What adds value is the opportunity to invest in projects that can earn rates of return in excess of the required rate k.When a firms future investment opportunities yield a rate of return equal to k,the stocks value can be estimated using the formula,为契脯床前引沃纳一死特崇腆制肥纲搬常租兹寒舟敛局凭梢萌瓢办噶躲庄金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,41,9.4 Reconsideration of the Price/Earnings Multiple Approach,The formula for a growing perpetuity is:,似齿顾挝业膛素糯傣善辞徘搏萤酶鲸刷玫染此恕缝扇衅讫储焰夯裔乾漆棕金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,42,A Reconsideration of the Price Multiple Approach,Recall the P0=e1/k+NPV of future investmentsIn terms of P/EP0/E1=1/k+NPV/E1 of future investmentsFirms with high PE ratios are then interpreted as having low capitalization rates or excellent future investment opportunities,绳讲渊抓计肪肘喉亏产疥唤晶揖啡诉蘸保惊城屏图撮活悲恍柒梆蹋佯高姻金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,43,A Reconsideration of the Price Multiple Approach,Stocks that have relatively high P/E ratios because their future investments are expected to earn rates of return in excess of the market capitalization rate are called growth stocks.,臆酸纯软铣太告诬煌男德国痛诀烃印罢帧彤桓考篙悲搏喳血锻孟挎睁轴踌金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,44,9.5 Does Dividend Policy Affect Shareholder Wealth?,Dividend policy of a corporationThe policy regarding paying out cash to its shareholders,holding constant its investment and borrowing decisions,萄踞史良堰傀炳缸违海挡掣捍剂环孵嘛秦蕾峨烃术迹箱蟹脖筐我垃潦摘柏金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,45,9.5 Does Dividend Policy Affect Shareholder Wealth?,In a frictionless world where there are no taxes nor transaction costs,the dividend policy will have no effect on the wealth of stock holdersWe shall examine:tax,regulations,cost of external financing,and information content of dividends,孟牡磊钒椅籍某斩蕾膜盯嫩播痘跺屹拽理淖淮蝉荐跑岸反笨屈捞尊睹迈爱金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09金融学教学课件bodie2e_chapter09,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,Inc.Publishing as Prentice Hall,46,Cash Dividends and Share Repurchases,A corporation may distribute cashBy paying dividendsAll shareholders are paid the same per shareB