化工行业三季报综述：前景仍不明朗_可自上而下选择投资标的-2012-11-02.ppt

业,证券分析师,张敬华,证,助理分析师,子行业评级,重点品种推荐,综,述,1 of 14,行研,化工行业业绩综述报告Table_MainInfo前景仍不明朗，可自上而下选择投资标的化工行业三季报综述,究,分析师：,任宪功,SAC NO：,S1150511010012,2012 年 11 月 1 日,Table_Author,任宪功010-Table_ContactorSAC No：S1150111080016zhangjh_,Table_Summary投资要点：3 季报业绩营业收入同比增长 6.21%，净利润同比却为 39.29%根据我们的行业划分，化工板块所发布的 3 季报情况来看，2012 年前 3 个季度全化工行业营业收入为 26,422.92 亿元，同比增长 6.21%，归属母公司净利润为 561.32 亿元,较 2011 年同期的 924.65 亿元，减少 363.33 亿元。,券研究,Table_IndInvest农药化肥新材料塑料化学纤维,看好看好看好中性中性,受全球经济低迷，需求不足影响，2012 年前 3 季度经营状况较为恶化从 3 季报来看，行业整体表现惨淡，营业收入增速减缓，净利润额度下降；受全球经济危机影响，化工行业整体表现惨淡，营业收入和净利润在增速上均表现出了较大程度的下滑，企业营业成本增加，在产能严重过剩的状况下，市场需求严重不足，行业盈利下降。,报,橡胶化学原料,中性中性,与中报相比，3 季报中营收和净利润下降的公司数量增加,告,石油化工Table_StkSuggest红太阳湖北宜化兴发集团,中性推荐推荐推荐,我们统计的 240 家化工行业公司中，三季报营业收入实现同比增长是 134家，同比下降的是 106 家，归属母公司净利润方面，实现同比增长的为 102家，同比下降的为 138 家；而在中报中，营业收入实现同比增长的为 141家，同比下降的是 98 家，归属母公司净利润同比增长为正的公司数量为 137家，同比增长为负的公司数量为 102 家，行业营业状况进一步恶化。,沧州明珠时代新材,推荐推荐,3 季报末估值相比 11 年同期有提升，市净率下降 24.19%,从估值方面看，截止 2012 年 10 月 31 日，化工行业 TTM 估值为 15.37 倍，去年同期为 14.46，增度为 6.93%，而从市净率来看，下降了 24.19%，估,业,值略显偏高。,绩,前景不明，但可自上而下布局行业绩优股,我们预计随着 4 季度国家在铁路等领域的年内投资额度的落实，将会造成 4季度投资增速的现象，也必将带动相关产业的发展；而作为 4 季度传统的市场销售旺季，农药也将会再有一波新的表现，以及随着冬储的执行，化肥行业或将受益；我们建议可自上而下布局化工股，重点选择市场较为给力，且年内业绩有保障的个股，关注红太阳、湖北宜化、兴发集团、沧州明珠和时代新材。,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格,化工行业业绩综述报告目 录1.三季报报业绩综合评述.4,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,2 of 14,化工行业业绩综述报告表目录表 1.化工各板块 12 年三季报表现.4表 2.公司 2012 年三季报表现.6,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,3 of 14,化工行业业绩综述报告1.三季报业绩综合评述根据申万板块划分，化工板块所发布的 3 季报报情况来看，2012 年前 3 个季度，全化工行业营业收入同比增长 6.21%，相比 2011 年 34.04%的增速减少 27.82%，归属母公司净利润同比增长率-39.29%，相比 2011 年 22.87%减少 62.17%；而从 3 季报与中报对比来看，3 季度整体行业盈利并没有多少改善，甚至化纤、纯碱以及氯碱等行业呈现出了进一步恶化的状况。从 3 季报来看，受全球经济危机影响，化工行业整体表现惨淡，营业收入和净利润在增速上均表现出了较大程度的下滑，企业营业成本增加，在产能严重过剩的状况下，市场需求严重不足，行业盈利下降。表 1.化工各板块 12 年三季报表现.,市盈率,市净率,营收,净利润,营收,净利润,板块名称SW 化工SW 化工新材料SW 其他化工新材料SW 聚氨酯SW 玻纤SW 化学纤维SW 涤纶SW 维纶SW 粘胶SW 其他纤维SW 氨纶SW 化学原料SW 纯碱SW 氯碱SW 无机盐SW 其他化学原料SW 化学制品SW 氮肥SW 磷肥SW 农药SW 日用化学产品SW 涂料油漆油墨制造SW 钾肥SW 民爆用品,(TTM)2012-10-3115.3722.5533.8118.3026.8728.6626.430.000.0054.4265.6434.3230.9940.8568.1517.8824.6420.1169.3726.7428.2533.3422.2824.29,(整体法)2012-10-311.632.252.022.601.751.902.041.451.901.271.921.771.451.772.702.352.311.472.042.504.312.152.772.47,YOY%2012 中报34.56%41.94%38.95%50.71%19.46%61.99%93.11%55.49%19.26%18.59%-2.87%42.75%61.98%24.12%31.23%39.97%37.77%46.17%25.71%47.78%19.82%30.12%85.12%,YOY%2012 中报31.58%101.09%69.93%134.13%25.80%77.53%137.74%42.01%-433.95%205.54%-35.47%544.38%1197.97%259.39%200.40%81.23%25.74%485.48%6.02%296.86%-21.12%122.45%59.59%,YOY%2012 三季报6.21%0.90%-15.37%11.96%5.97%-8.13%-5.35%-19.70%-34.04%4.10%0.12%-8.04%-12.56%-5.51%-8.68%-1.49%15.47%16.10%52.70%30.41%16.48%4.77%7.74%15.67%,YOY%2012 三季报-39.29%-39.45%-111.15%-16.16%-1.68%-110.27%-87.12%-511.41%-33.59%-130.00%-94.06%-106.48%-106.58%-138.00%-83.70%-43.16%-16.05%-36.20%-39.58%75.58%188.30%7.15%-23.15%-8.47%,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,4 of 14,化工行业业绩综述报告,SW 纺织化学用品SW 其他化学制品SW 复合肥SW 氟化工及制冷剂SW 磷化工及磷酸盐SW 石油化工SW 石油加工SW 石油贸易SW 塑料SW 其他塑料制品SW 合成革SW 改性塑料SW 橡胶SW 轮胎SW 其他橡胶制品SW 炭黑,18.1129.7221.5024.3138.5011.2511.1155.0713.8311.6122.7119.8423.1322.7122.8924.81,1.432.812.202.603.401.251.252.222.443.041.451.901.991.882.062.36,28.01%30.82%52.59%84.46%35.26%32.64%32.38%129.08%23.86%22.68%25.52%25.16%28.16%26.22%52.53%32.88%,12.26%45.98%110.36%537.65%15.04%14.24%14.13%85.78%90.17%84.00%12.98%137.85%-9.92%-18.45%6.49%16.79%,3.27%12.42%14.72%-16.66%38.35%7.16%7.16%7.05%3.12%3.40%1.29%3.23%-3.45%-5.07%2.73%6.15%,-32.98%-5.16%4.79%-66.00%23.78%-35.66%-35.71%-9.65%-11.87%-3.20%-10.10%-19.29%9.08%-5.20%80.73%-5.29%,数据来源：wind 资讯、渤海证券研究所3 季度季报表现惨淡，除营业成本增加外，高涨的原油价格、低迷的市场需求、全球经济复苏缓慢、欧债危机难以脱困，以及国内经济增速放缓，同样是造成今年 3 季度化工行业低迷的主要原因。从我们划分的二级及三级子行业中，表现较为突出和稳定的为磷化工、日化、农药、化肥以及橡胶等子行业；其中，农药和日化 3 季报显示，行业营业收入同比增长分别为 30.41%和 16.48%，从归属母公司净利润来看，2012 年前 3 个季度农药和日化行业同比分别增长 75.58%和 188.30%，较 2011 年同期的 5.81%和382.79%，分别浮动 69.77%和-194.49%。从前 3 个季度，农药和日化行业整体表现来看，行业发展稳定，且有较大幅度的增长，良好业绩主要得益于国内市场旺盛的需求，以及价格的上涨，长期来看，这种优势仍将保持。此外，受国内稳定的市场需求以及价格的稳定，磷化工和化肥行业的表现也不俗，这主要得益于磷矿石价格的高位稳定以及农业生产对化肥的稳定需求和国家的政策扶持。估值方面，截止到 2012 年 10 月 31 日，化工行业 TTM 估值为 15.37 倍，较 2011年同期的 14.46 倍上浮 6.29%；截止到 2012 年 10 月 31 日，化工行业市净率（整体法）为 1.63，而 2011 年同期为 2.15，下降了 24.19%；我们认为，虽然投资者对目前行业的投资价值已下调，但目前估值水平仍显偏高。,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,5 of 14,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,化工行业业绩综述报告表 2.公司 2012 年三季报表现,序号,一级行业,二级行业,三级行业,证券代码,证券简称,市盈率 TTM12-10-31,市净率12-10-31,Q2 营收YOY%,Q2 净利润YOY%,Q3 营收YOY%,Q3 净利润YOY%,000755.SZ000818.SZ002061.SZ002165.SZ002246.SZ,山西三维方大化工江山化工红宝丽北化股份,172.67180.0332.3041.36115.47,1.161.342.152.532.73,60.11%-5.74%-8.93%-14.75%-9.85%,-74.75%-81.69%100.81%-30.67%-80.19%,61.08%-2.80%-8.99%-9.34%-18.26%,-91.83%-96.00%119.54%-20.38%-70.25%,SW聚氨酯,002408.SZ300200.SZ,齐翔腾达高盟新材,23.0224.92,2.522.06,-12.20%10.02%,-56.08%44.83%,13.61%9.57%,-37.63%52.23%,300343.SZ,联创节能,20.80,2.73,-4.27%,11.52%,600230.SH,沧州大化,16.44,2.98,16.65%,224.39%,27.77%,650.35%,10111213,600309.SH600339.SH601678.SH002080.SZ,烟台万华天利高新滨化股份中材科技,15.0712.3316.1331.05,3.892.291.731.41,4.10%24.43%-9.07%18.44%,-1.45%-153.33%-43.33%-14.49%,8.67%32.99%-10.67%15.15%,7.15%-196.52%-38.44%-17.12%,1415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536,化工,SW化工新材料,SW玻纤SW其他化工新材料,002201.SZ300196.SZ600176.SH000985.SZ002211.SZ002591.SZ002632.SZ002643.SZ002669.SZ300019.SZ300037.SZ300041.SZ300054.SZ300073.SZ300082.SZ300163.SZ300169.SZ600299.SH600319.SH600458.SH600589.SH603002.SH000703.SZ,九鼎新材长海股份中国玻纤大庆华科宏达新材恒大高新道明光学烟台万润康达新材硅宝科技新宙邦回天胶业鼎龙股份当升科技奥克股份先锋新材天晟新材蓝星新材亚星化学时代新材广东榕泰宏昌电子恒逸石化,61.3823.3123.94708.3624.2525.1530.0227.3428.7919.2422.5121.9172.79349.5136.6029.5131.593.728.8736.6130.2360.3629.43,2.852.161.743.121.291.641.622.242.052.332.531.475.961.631.181.401.871.451.983.411.683.152.46,1.16%19.98%-4.40%1.29%-16.17%-13.90%-10.57%-15.86%-36.41%11.07%1.41%0.60%-12.89%-1.09%-33.52%-4.36%38.83%-18.44%-24.92%-9.06%-11.98%-12.56%21.75%,4.00%37.64%-21.55%-159.92%-122.35%-9.70%-28.55%-9.98%-53.94%15.20%0.38%-15.41%-4.75%-21.59%-47.54%-15.55%40.57%-475.63%890.23%-46.21%46.39%-5.69%-72.53%,-3.47%23.45%1.92%-1.97%-16.43%-15.24%-18.34%-15.85%-24.38%11.65%1.69%2.77%0.44%2.27%-31.84%-2.96%35.56%-20.39%-22.73%-3.83%-13.18%-14.21%7.69%,9.49%50.28%-5.96%-129.57%-111.66%-15.90%-45.92%-19.90%-47.50%20.82%3.91%-15.97%-2.61%471.48%-47.96%-23.41%4.79%-1415.99%718.79%-33.82%30.24%2.89%-79.77%,373839,SW化学纤维,SW涤纶,000936.SZ000976.SZ002015.SZ,华西股份春晖股份霞客环保,25.358.7776.25,1.584.802.10,-22.43%-37.94%-0.32%,-41.86%-745.83%3.63%,-24.49%-38.50%-14.69%,-24.16%-7386.29%-11.20%,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,6 of 14,化工行业业绩综述报告,4041424344454647,002127.SZ002206.SZ002427.SZ002493.SZ600061.SH600527.SH600871.SH601233.SH,新民科技海利得尤夫股份荣盛石化中纺投资江南高纤S 仪化桐昆股份,14.6421.68284.2229.69198.2116.3779.9919.63,1.671.221.551.833.342.122.851.04,5.46%-23.50%8.61%6.51%-6.06%-4.89%-19.39%-6.93%,-283.44%-53.63%-83.94%-77.20%-174.95%54.01%-137.04%-84.78%,0.02%-20.33%14.87%0.38%-0.99%-13.10%-19.29%-9.43%,-265.22%-52.68%-67.88%-79.77%-121.73%41.01%-133.88%-81.53%,4849505152535455565758596061626364656667686970717273747576777879808182,SW化学原料,SW维纶SW粘胶SW氨纶SW其他纤维SW纯碱SW氯碱SW无机盐,600063.SH600725.SH000420.SZ000615.SZ000677.SZ000687.SZ000949.SZ002172.SZ600889.SH000584.SZ002064.SZ002254.SZ000782.SZ600810.SH601113.SH000707.SZ000822.SZ600229.SH600409.SH603077.SH000510.SZ000635.SZ002053.SZ002092.SZ002386.SZ600075.SH600091.SH600281.SH600301.SH600618.SH600722.SH600769.SH601216.SH002125.SZ300285.SZ,皖维高新云维股份*ST 吉纤湖北金环*ST 海龙保定天鹅新乡化纤澳洋科技南京化纤友利控股华峰氨纶泰和新材美达股份神马股份华鼎锦纶双环科技山东海化青岛碱业三友化工和邦股份金路集团英力特云南盐化中泰化学天原集团新疆天业ST 明科太化股份南化股份氯碱化工ST 金化ST 祥龙内蒙君正湘潭电化国瓷材料,277.734.735.57160.012.84232.9113.766.4040.1442.10379.8265.6429.428.71106.0689.8413.6612.1189.6915.5017.8961.5611.2886.9114.0250.0713.0730.173.93100.8618.922.9818.6897.6234.31,1.591.272.471.612.021.881.404.041.561.562.132.041.411.061.491.291.072.201.321.853.480.951.531.180.841.582.804.2227.223.553.4740.791.484.003.43,-18.17%-15.05%-43.99%5.78%-66.48%-2.21%-28.48%-9.97%-21.39%-15.09%9.54%-4.77%-11.44%21.57%22.59%3.73%-35.01%-10.50%-1.38%15.96%-14.05%-13.76%-22.65%0.99%-8.45%3.22%1.22%41.98%-39.28%-8.99%-10.67%-50.11%-4.81%-13.32%49.74%,-46.55%-6361.7%-472.63%-111.33%4.00%-95.00%-276.13%-61.44%-206.11%-209.51%-131.78%-73.85%-71.01%-188.00%-72.69%-66.80%-179.08%-2570.8%-90.34%112.41%595.34%-137.21%-429.05%-76.99%-356.79%-88.94%12.32%-44.89%121.23%-48.67%-84.96%-23545.4%-41.40%-259.62%58.89%,-14.92%-21.40%-37.95%5.73%-70.49%-13.45%-23.53%-20.85%-31.01%-11.70%16.34%-5.07%-17.58%10.22%8.21%-2.59%-35.39%-15.69%-0.76%-3.96%-14.96%-10.90%-16.52%0.66%-7.07%-1.86%145.56%37.84%-37.51%-8.35%-11.11%-63.58%-4.98%-19.43%35.49%,-124.34%-2758.82%-63.06%-111.28%-22.58%-102.79%-399.39%-92.96%-161.33%-310.99%-74.95%-69.05%-80.11%-224.09%-75.21%-97.70%-194.88%-675.12%-88.30%13.89%340.17%-112.92%-536.62%-72.63%-294.70%-114.47%-45.30%-64.17%89.95%-57.13%-58.87%566.20%-33.80%-237.86%27.44%,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,7 of 14,化工行业业绩综述报告,8384,600328.SH600367.SH,兰太实业红星发展,106.8994.20,2.292.41,-1.79%1.23%,-147.52%-58.55%,-2.58%-15.42%,-134.02%-62.21%,858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124,SW化学制品,SW 其他化学原料SW氮肥SW磷肥SW钾肥SW复合肥SW农药,002648.SZ000155.SZ000422.SZ000731.SZ000830.SZ000912.SZ000950.SZ000953.SZ002113.SZ002556.SZ600096.SH600227.SH600228.SH600423.SH600426.SH600470.SH600727.SH000792.SZ600251.SH002170.SZ002274.SZ002470.SZ002538.SZ002539.SZ002588.SZ000525.SZ000553.SZ002004.SZ002018.SZ002215.SZ002250.SZ002258.SZ002391.SZ002411.SZ002496.SZ002513.SZ600389.SH600486.SH600538.SH600596.SH,卫星石化*ST 川化湖北宜化四川美丰鲁西化工泸天化建峰化工ST 河化ST 天润辉隆股份云天化赤天化昌九生化柳化股份华鲁恒升六国化工鲁北化工盐湖股份冠农股份芭田股份华昌化工金正大司尔特新都化工史丹利红太阳沙隆达 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of 14,化工行业业绩综述报告,125126127128,600731.SH600803.SH000523.SZ000662.SZ,湖南海利威远生化广州浪奇*ST 索芙,207.4857.92102.679.13,3.903.412.472.38,40.18%0.07%56.52%16.04%,90.09%75.94%29.45%470.46%,40.53%3.66%60.11%8.52%,87.53%78.07%10.61%-127.63%,129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167,SW日用化学品SW纺织化学品SW民爆用品SW涂料油漆油墨制造SW氟化工及制冷剂SW磷化工SW其他化学制品,000737.SZ002637.SZ600249.SH600315.SH002010.SZ002054.SZ002440.SZ300067.SZ600352.SH002037.SZ002096.SZ002109.SZ002217.SZ002226.SZ002360.SZ002497.SZ002683.SZ600985.SH000565.SZ000791.SZ002256.SZ002319.SZ002361.SZ300063.SZ300192.SZ300225.SZ002326.SZ002407.SZ600160.SH600636.SH600078.SH600141.SH000627.SZ002136.SZ002145.SZ002409.SZ002453.SZ002455.SZ002476.SZ,南风化工赞宇科技两面针上海家化传化股份德美化工闰土股份安诺其浙江龙盛久联发展南岭民爆兴化股份联合化工江南化工同德化工雅化集团宏大爆破雷鸣科化渝三峡 A西北化工彩虹精化乐通股份神剑股份天龙集团科斯伍德金力泰永太科技多氟多巨化股份三爱富澄星股份兴发集团天茂集团安纳达*ST 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of 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