CONSUMERSECTOR：LONGTERMTRENDREMAINSDESPITETWISTEDSALESPATTERNDURING“GOLDENWEEK”1024.ppt

,ConsumerSector消费行业,SectorReport,GTJAResearch国泰君安研究,5%,10%,15%,Sector Report:Consumer Sector行业报告：消费行业24 October 2012Long Term Trend Remains Despite Twisted Sales Pattern during“Golden Week”尽管“黄金周”期间销售模式扭曲，长期趋势不变Chinas tourism revenue was RMB210.5 billion,up 26.3%YoY on,an adjusted basis during“Golden Week”and the rapid growth inairlines passenger traffic in“Golden Week”also reflected thattourism demand was very strong.However,according to thesurveillance data by Ministry of Commerce,the nationwide sales ofkey retail and catering enterprises were up by only 15%yoy,which isthe lowest since 2007.Sales growth of food and apparel for 100 majorretail enterprises outpaced the total growth but remained weak during“Golden Week”.Vehicle sales during“Golden Week”increasedslowly due to the demand overdrawn before the holidays andsignificant sales drop of Japanese branded vehicles.Although“Golden Week”twisted the general sales pattern in a,Stock Performance股价表现25%20%15%10%5%0%,short period,we expect it will not change the long term trend ineach of our consumer sub sectors.The economy chain hotels are,20%201110,201112,201202 201204Consumer,201206HSI,201208,201210,expected to continue to benefit from the increased travel.China is,expected to be a world leader in number of hotels by 2025.Despitetemporary slowdown in retail,food and beverage as well as apparelsales growth,we believe consumers willingness to spend will improvein 2013 on expectations of faster economic growth.Our top picks forthe consumer sector include Brilliance(1114 HK),China Lodging,Change in Share Price股价变动Abs.%绝对变动%Rel.%to HS index相对恒指变动%,1M1 个月6.82.2,3M3 个月12.31.8,1Y1 年(1.4)(21.8),(HTHT US),Vinda(3331 HK),Belle(1880 HK)and Intime(1833 HK).,Source:Bloomberg.,“黄金周”期间，中国旅游业总收入是 210.5 亿元人民币（经调整），同比增长26.3%。“黄金周”期间，航空公司的客运增长迅速也反映出旅游需求非常强烈。但是根据商务部的统计数据，全国重点零售销售和餐饮企业的增长率只有 15%，这是自 2007 年以来最低的增长率。在“黄金周”期间，全国百家重点大零售企业的食品和服装销售增长均超过总增长率，但是增速仍然维持疲弱。另外汽车销售在“黄金周”增长缓慢，主要是由于假期之前的需求透支和日本品牌汽车销售大幅下滑。虽然“黄金周”在很短的期间扭曲了一般的销售模式，我们认为这将不会改变我们每个消费子行业的长期趋势。经济连锁酒店预计将继续受益于旅行的增加。中国预计到 2025 年按酒店数量计算将处于全球的领导地位。尽管目前零售、服装和食品饮料销售增长放缓，我们相信消费者的消费意愿在 2013 年将因应更快的经济增长预期而有所提高。我们的消费行业的首选包括华晨汽车(1114 HK)、汉庭(HTHTUS)、维达(3331 HK)、百丽(1880 HK)和 银泰百货(1833 HK)。,Jerry Peng 彭港祥+86 755 Sunny Kwok 郭日升+852 2509.hkHarry Chen 陈欢瑜+86 755,Noah Hudson+86 755 Frank Xu 许智程+86 755,Company Name公司名称Automobiles&ComponentsAviationConsumer-ApparelConsumer-Foods&Beverageand Household ProductsConsumer-HotelsConsumer-RetailSimple average,Rating投资评级NeutralNeutralOutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform,12 PER市盈率(x)19.512.210.524.432.419.519.7,13 PER市盈率(x)13.39.011.417.819.516.614.6,14 PER市盈率(x)11.18.19.214.316.314.212.2,12 ROE净资产收益率(%)14.29.118.416.48.318.114.1,12 P/B市净率(x)1.81.01.93.42.43.22.3,12 Yield股息率(%)1.01.05.01.40.02.21.8,SourceBloomberg,Guotai Junan International.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 1 of 18,24October2012,SectorReport,ConsumerSector消费行业,“GOLDEN WEEK”STATISTICSTourism revenue increased 26.3%YoY during“Golden Week”.According to statistics from the National TourismAdministration of China,during the 8 days of Chinas“Golden Week”,Chinas tourism revenue was RMB210.5 billion,up 26.3%YoY on an adjusted basis.There were a total of 425 million person trips during the period,up 23.3%YoY.The number ofovernight trips where travelers stayed at hotels or other lodging facilities increased 19.0%YoY to 96.94 million.The number ofday trip travelers reached 328 million,up 24.6%YoY.Table-1:2012“Golden Week”Travel Statistics,2012 Golden Week,YoY,Tourism revenueTravelersOvernight lodging staysDay trip travelers,RMB210.5 billion425 million person trips96.94 million328 million,26.3%23.3%19.0%24.6%,Source:National Tourism Administration of China.Airlines passenger numbers increased rapidly during“Golden Week”.According to China Aviation Administration ofChina(“CAAC”),there were 7.6 million passengers who traveled through airlines during Chinas“Golden Week”(Sept.30-Oct.7),up 27%YoY.Compared with previous years,the passenger number growth of“Golden Week”2012 was the highest duringthe past 6 years,while the daily passenger number growth was close to the historical average.The rapid growth of passengernumbers was mainly due to longer holidays and the delay of travelling as a result of frequent natural disasters in spring andsummer this year.In addition,easing VISA requirement of developed countries,including U.S.,Korea and Japan,as well asRMB appreciation this year has boosted the number of outbound travelers significantly.Table-2:Airlines Passenger Number Growth during the“Golden Week”,2007-2012,Year200720082009201020112012,Number ofHolidays778778,Passenger number(000)3,7504,3305,2905,7505,9807,600,YoY Growth24%15%22%9%4%27%,Daily passengernumber(000)536619661821854950,YoY Growth24%15%7%24%4%11%,Source:CAAC,Guotai Junan International.Unexciting nominal retail sales data for“Golden Week”.According to the surveillance data by Ministry of Commerce,the2012“Golden Week”(excluding the Spring Festival holiday)nationwide sales of key retail and catering enterprises amountedto RMB 800.6 billion,up by 15%compared with the“Golden Week”in 2011,which was the lowest growth rate since 2007.Ifincluding the Spring Festival holiday,the nominal sales growth rate of the 2012“Golden Week”was higher than that of the2009 Spring Festival holiday but lower than in 2010 and 2011.However,considering the inflation rate at the moment is lowerthan most of the time since 2010,the real sales growth of 2012“Golden Week”is therefore on par with the sales of all the longholidays(inc.both Spring Festival holiday and“Golden Week”)since 2010.In addition,according to the China NationalCommercial Information Center(CNCIC),the aggregate sales of 100 major retail enterprises in China during the“GoldenWeek”grew 8.49%.The growth was strong at the beginning of the holiday,where the sales growth of the Mid-Autumn Festivalrecorded an outstanding figure of 52.54%YoY,but then quickly declined to 3.06%YoY for the Chinese National Holiday.Bydaily average figure,the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during 2012“Golden Week”holiday were RMB 100.1billion,compared with RMB 99.5 billion in 2011,the growth was only 0.6%YoY,which is historically low.Despite of the effect ofone extra holiday this year,we witnessed the implementation of certain favorable macro policies before the“Golden Week”holiday in the context of promoting consumption,which we believe has cannibalized some“Golden Week”sales growth.Thepolicy of the State Council that allows free passage of passenger cars with seven seats or fewer on toll roads,bridges andtunnels during major national holidays had the most obvious effect.From the feedback of our channel check,we consider theamazing tourism data during the“Golden Week”holiday can be used to explain the fairly low traffic recorded in certain retailenterprises.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 2 of 18,24October2012,SectorReport,ConsumerSector消费行业,Table-3:Historical Sales of Key Retail and Catering Enterprises for the“Golden Week”.,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,No.of daysSocial retail sales(RMB Bil)Growth%Daily average sales(RMB Bil)Daily average growth%,7270.014.2%38.6,7300.014.5%42.911.1%,7350.016.0%50.016.7%,7420.021.0%60.020.0%,8570.018.0%71.318.8%,7592.518.7%84.618.8%,7696.217.5%99.517.5%,8800.615.0%100.10.6%,Source:Ministry of Commerce of the PRC,Guotai Junan International.Figure-1:Comparison of Historical Sales and Growth of Spring Festival Holiday(SF)and“Golden Week”(GW).,900.0,Sales(left axis,RMB Bil),Sales growth(right axis,%),25.0%,800.0700.0600.0500.0,16.0%,14.2%,15.5%,14.5%,15.0%,16.0%,16.0%,21.0%,13.8%,18.0%,17.2%,18.7%,19.0%,17.5%,16.2%,15.0%,20.0%15.0%,400.0300.0200.0,10.0%5.0%,100.0,160.0,270.0,190.0,300.0,220.0,350.0,255.0,420.0,290.0,570.0,340.0,592.5,404.5,696.2,470.0,800.6,0.0,0.0%,05 SF,05 GW,06 SF,06 GW,07 SF,07 GW,08 SF,08 GW,09 SF,09 GW,10 SF,10 GW,11 SF,11 GW,12 SF,12 GW,Source:Ministry of Commerce of the PRC,Guotai Junan InternationalFigure-2:YoY CPI Trend(%)10.08.06.04.02.00.0(2.0)Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.Table-4:Sales Profile of 100 Major Retail Enterprises for the 2012“Golden Week”.Sales growth YoY,100 Major retail enterprises in China-Sales during Mid-Autumn Festival(30th Sept.)-Sales during Chinese National Holiday(1st-7th Oct.)-Sales of Cosmetics-Sales of Clothing-Sales of Food-Sales of Gold,silver&jewellery-Sales of Household electric&applianceSource:CNCIC,Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer,8.49%52.54%3.06%17.69%15.23%13.24%2.42%1.30%Page 3 of 18,24October2012,SectorReport,ConsumerSector消费行业,201204,201205,201206,201207,201208,201209,201103,201104,201105,201106,201107,201108,201109,201110,201111,201112,201112,201212,201203,201103,201104,201105,201106,201107,201108,201109,201110,201111,201112,201203,201204,201205,201206,201207,201208,201112,201212,201209,Goldenweek,21.4,11.3 11.2,16.7,Weak apparel sales growth during“Golden Week”.According to CNCIC,sales growth of 100 major retail enterprises inChina was 8.49%during the“Golden Week”,of which apparel sales growth outpaced total retail sales growth and reached15.2%.The apparel retail sales growth of 100 major retail enterprises during the“Golden Week”was generally in line with thegrowth in February to September,which was partially attributable to the strong sales growth on Sept 30 for the mid autumnfestival sales.But CNCIC explained the sales performance during Oct 1-7 was quite weak as a result of the softeningconsumer sentiment as well as the high proportion of consumers travelling out of town.The apparel sales in different cities orprovinces during“Golden Week”varied significantly.Apparel sales in Hangzhou and Guangzhou dropped by 8.7%and 15.0%,respectively,during the“Golden Week”.Yet apparel sales in Qingdao,Jinan,Dongying and Sichuan had much strongergrowth with over 20%sales growth.The apparel sales performance in lower tier cities or in western districts demonstrated amore robust growth potential,which we believe it could be attributable to tourists travelling to lower tier or going back to theirhometowns,thereby spurring strong local consumption demand during that period.China Lilang(1234 HK)disclosed SSSGduring“Golden Week”of-6%.Daphne(210 HK)mentioned the SSSG for its core brand was largely in line with the weak salesperformance of department stores.Table-5:Apparel Sales in Different Cities or Provinces during“Golden Week”.,Region/City Apparel sales(RMB Mil)Sales Growth,Channel,HangzhouQingdaoJinanGuangzhouLianyungangSichuanDongyingBenxi,443176n.a.n.a.n.a.684714,-8.7%31.0%30.0%-15.0%15.0%26.9%22.8%-1.2%,6 major department storesSocial retail salesSocial retail salesMajor apparel companies3 major department storesKey commercial enterprises6 department stores6 retail enterprises,Source:Different websites,Guotai Junan International.,Figure-3:Apparel Sales Growth of Major 100 RetailEnterprises(YTD YoY),Figure-4:Apparel Sales Growth of Major 100 RetailEnterprises(YoY),3025201510,%22.922.1,22.9 21.8 21.822.0,24.522.0,20.47.4,9.9 10.1 10.710.7,3025201510,%22.919.4,26.720.7 20.618.817.2,27.0,22.815.210.3,20.312.2,15.411.5,16.710.6,15.2,50Source:CNCIC,Guotai Junan International.,5.2,50Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China.,5.2,Weak sales growth of food and stagnant ASP on cautious spending and food prices(other than fresh vegetables)remaining stable.Consumers need to buy food,beverages and household products throughout the year and hence,salesperformance during“Golden Week”is not expected to hugely affect staples manufacturers results.According to CNCIC,salesgrowth of 100 major retail enterprises in China was only 8.49%during the“Golden Week”,of which sales growth of foodoutpaced total retail sales growth and reached 13.24%.Major foods,beverages and household products ASP remainedrelatively stable during the“Golden Week”,despite possible price hikes for edible oil recently due to rising materials costs,slight rebound of meat and poultry prices and falls in fresh vegetable prices such as Chinese cabbage,rapes and tomatoes.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 4 of 18,Jan-Feb-11,GoldenWeek,Jan-Feb-12,GoldenWeek,May-11,May-12,Mar-11,Oct-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Mar-12,Jun-11,Jul-11,Jun-12,Sep-11,Jul-12,Aug-11,Aug-12,Sep-12,Apr-11,Apr-12,SectorReport,ConsumerSector消费行业,24October2012,40%,Figure-5:Sales Growth of Major 100 Retail EnterprisesMajor 100 Retail Enterprises Sales Growth:TotalMajor 100 Retail Enterprises Sales Growth:Foods30%20%10%0%Source:CNCIC.Vehicle sales during“Golden Week”grew slowly.According to China Passenger Cars Association(“CPCA”),dailypassenger vehicle(“PV”)sales in the first two weeks of October increased 3%YoY and 48%MoM.The sales of PV did notshow growth as strong as that of 2009 and 2010 during the“Golden Week”.This is mainly because of the longer public holidayand toll charge exemption for highways during the holidays drew more potential buyers to purchase vehicles in advance andtravel instead of staying in their cities to look for vehicles during the holidays.In addition,the sales of Japanese brand vehiclescontinued to face a difficult time due to the national conflict between China and Japan.We believe that the PV sales ofOctober are expected to remain the same as last year.SECTOR CURRENT SITUATIONThe CRH(China Railway of High-speed)and rapid growth of self-driving as a result of no highway toll charges havepartially diverted the passenger numbers from airlines.As a result,the average daily passenger number by airlinesincreased 11%YoY during“Golden Week”,lower than tourist number growth.Since most of the airlines expected passengernumbers during“Golden Week”to increase rapidly,they increased the capacity significantly.Passenger load factors ofdomestic flights decreased 2pps YoY to around 82%.According to Smartrix,airfares of domestic flights during“Golden Week”were nearly the same as last year while that of international flights increased slightly,lower than expected.Airfares slippedrapidly after the“Golden Week”not only due to the seasonal effects,but also because business travel slowed down rapidly asa result of the uncertainty in Chinas economic growth during 4Q12.We believe that the business travel will improve graduallyin 2013 when Chinas economy starts to recover,which is expected to increase the airlines passenger traffic and airfares of2013.Expect improvement for economy chain hotels operators Home Inns and China Lodging.According to statistics fromthe China Tourism Academy(中国旅游研究院,the Academy),during 1-3Q12,tourism revenue was RMB1.92 trillion,up 15.3%YoY.The Academy remains cautiously optimistic on the outlook for full year 2012 results,estimating that the total number oftravelers will reach 3.13 billion people,up 20.4%YoY,with total tourism income of RMB2.6 trillion,representing YoY growth of16.6%.We expect economy chain hotels to benefit from the increased travel.We expect Home Inns(HMIN US)to start showing strong YoY results improvement starting in 3Q12 and