中国对美国纺织品服装出口的外文翻译.doc

中国对美国纺织品服装出口的外文翻译 The Changing World Network of Trade in Textiles andApparel Thomas Vollrath，Mark Gehlhar，Stephen MacDonaldU.S.A.Thomas Vollrath, thomasvers.usda.govMark Gehlhar, mgehlharers.usda.govStephen MacDonald, stephenmers.usda.govThe structure of the global textile market is fundamentally changing in response to policy reforms stemming from the 1995 Uruguay Round (UR) of the World Trade Organization. The UR instituted agreements to reduce tariffs on textile and apparel products to levels closer to those found elsewhere in manufacturing. It also established the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC), which stipulates that all bilateral import quotas, sanctioned under the 1974 Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA), will be eliminated by 2005.Full implementation of the UR reforms will bring textiles and apparel into greater conformity with internationally accepted rules of trade. Collectively, these reforms should stimulate growth in textile trade, which already outpaces trade in other sectors of the world economy. For example, trade in textiles and apparel in the last decade nearly doubled to $334 billion. These reforms also promise to significantly alter the location of production and the direction of fiber and textile trade.The Bilateral Fiber and Textile Trade database, available on the ERS website enables analysts to examine the evolving structure of trade among partners and across commodities and products in the global market. This database, derived from UN Comtrade data, contains information about commodity and product trade flows among exporting and importing countries/regions between 1992 and 2002.The global network of trade in textiles and apparel has shifted significantly, with many low-income countries benefiting from higher sales within the past 1decade. Unlike agricultural production, which depends on the availability of natural resources, the location of textile and, particularly, apparel production is highly mobile and extremely responsive to wage differentials. Textile and apparel production requires substantial labor, is not technologically demanding, and provides employment opportunities for the relatively unskilled laborers who transfer out of subsistence agriculture. It introduces workers to manufacturing and provides them with training opportunities in new and productivity-enhancing activities.2 3Competition from low-cost suppliers in developing countries has put considerable pressure on established exporters of textiles and apparel, particularly those in the newly industrialized countries (NIC) of Asia (Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan). The Asian-NIC share of the global textile and apparel market halved, falling from 24 to 12 percent between 1992 and 2002. In contrast, the market share of developing-country suppliers, excluding the Asian NICs, increased 15 percentage points to 64 percent during this period. China was especially successful, raising its share of the global market to 25 percent in 2002, up 4 percentage points from 1992. Such competitive pressures from low-cost, developing-country suppliers are likely to accelerate following theelimination of MFA quotas by 2005. Textile and apparel trade is strongly influenced by established networks and geographical proximity. Together, Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe dominate the EU market because of preferential trading agreements and the economics of geographical location. In contrast, the most important suppliers to the United States are Latin America, China, and the Asian NICs. With improved market access from the ATC, low-income Asian producers are likely to vie more effectively with these traditional suppliers for foreign market shares in the U.S. and EU markets. 4 The UR reforms are expected to reduce prices for textiles and apparel, increasing worldwide demand for products throughout the fiber-to-clothing supply chain. Demand for textile and apparel imports is already rising rapidly among the industrialized countries (IC). This demand is particularly strong among importers using MFA quotas (Canada, EU, Norway, and the United States). As consumer prices fall due to ATC reforms, imports of clothing, bed linen, carpets, and other products are likely to continue to increase. Envisioned shifts in supply and demand for textile and apparel will enhance labor productivity in the developing countries, leading to income growth and greater global demand for agricultural 5products, including food and raw fibers, such as cotton. 6 不断变化的世界纺织品服装贸易格局 托马斯·瓦拉斯，马克·葛赫哈，史蒂芬·麦克通纳德美国 http:/www.ers.usda.gov/amberwaves 托马斯·瓦拉斯，thomasvers.usda.gov马克·葛赫哈，mgehlharers.usda.gov史蒂芬·麦克通纳德，stephenmers.usda.gov全球纺织品市场结构是根据1995年世界贸易组织举行的乌拉圭回合的政策改革而发生着根本性的变化。乌拉圭回合提议将纺织品和服装产品的关税降低到与这些生产国的关税比较接近的水平。它同样确立了纺织品与服装协定（ATC），ATC是保证在1974年多种纤维协定（MFA）下制定的所有的双边进口配额将会在2005年被取消。乌拉圭回合改革的全部实现将使得纺织品和服装与国际上公认的贸易规则更加地一致。总的来说,这些改革应该促进纺织品贸易的增长，这种增长会超过世界经济体中其它部门贸易的增长。譬如，纺织品和服装贸易在过去的十年中几乎翻了一倍达到3340亿美元。这些改革同样预示着纤维和纺织品贸易的生产地点和方向将会发生重大改变。ERS网站（www.ers.usda.gov/data/fibertextiletrade/）提供的双边纤维和纺织品贸易数据库，能使分析家了解全球市场中合作伙伴之间和跨商品和产品之间正在演进的贸易结构。这个数据库，来源于联合国的Comtrade数据，它包括出口和进口国家/地区在1992年到2002年之间的有关商品和产品贸易流的信息。纺织品和服装贸易的全球格局已经发生了重大的变化，同时在过去的十年间许多低收入国家从更大的贸易销售中获利。与依赖自然资源禀赋的农业产品不同，纺织品生产的地点，特别是，服装的生产地点由于工资的差异在不断地转移。纺织品和服装的生产需要大量的劳动力，这种生产并不是技术性的生产需求，而是为大量从农业中转移出来的相对缺乏技术能力的劳动者提供就业的机会。它使工人们学会生产制造，并且提供给他们在新的并且生产效率不断提高的领域内培训的机会。 7不断变化的全球纺织品和服装出口国格局 8来自发展中国家低成本供给的竞争已经给原有的纺织品和服装的出口国施加了相当大的压力，特别是对于那些亚洲的新兴工业化国家（香港、澳门、新加坡、韩国和台湾）。亚洲新兴工业化国家在全球纺织品和服装市场所占的份额减少了一半，从1992年的24%下降到2002年的12%。相反，除亚洲新兴工业化国家以外，发展中国家的供应商所占的市场份额在这段时期9 人们希望乌拉圭回合的改革能降低纺织品和服装的价格，通过纤维服装供应链来增加全球对这些产品的需求。在工业化国家中对纺织品和服装进口的需求在快速地增长。这种需求的增长在使用多种纤维协定规定下的配额制的进口国（加拿大、欧盟、挪威和美国）中表现地非常明显。由于纺织品与服装协定的改革使得消费者的价格下降，服装、床上亚麻纺织品、地毯和其他产品的进口很可能继续增加。纺织品和服装的供给和需求潜在的变化将要提高发展中国家的劳动生产效率，促进收入的增长和全球农产品需求的扩大，这些农产品包括食物和纤维原材料，比如棉花。 10 11 Trade liberalization and patterns of strategicadjustment in the US textiles and clothing industry Belay SeyoumU.S.A.International Business Review，Issue 16 ,2007 Belay SeyoumNova Southeastern University, 3301 College Avenue, Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33314, USAReceived 2 December 2005; received in revised form 17 April 2006, 11 October 2006, 23 November 2006; accepted13 December 2006The overall environment facing the US TC industry will be one of rapidly changing market conditions and technological innovation. With the phase out of quotas and growing number of trade agreements, the US TC industry is being exposed to intense competition in export and domestic markets. This is likely to lead domestic industries/labor to demand intervention by national governments to mitigate the adverse impact of trade liberalization (Standbury & Vertinksy, 2004).In spite of the substantial job losses, the US TC industry remains technologically advanced partly due to increased productivity resulting from advances in technology and design capabilities. Textile production is capital intensive and modern technology is essential to meet the increasing for high-quality products. Over the last few years, US textiles and apparel firms have substantially increased their investment to maintain modern manufacturing facilities as well as improve production and marketing capabilities in order to maximize their inherent advantages to market proximity. In apparel, low skill production jobs have moved to low-cost locations offshore while the more skilled ones have been retained. To successfully adapt to the new environment, US TC industries need to capitalize on their sources of competitive advantage. They need to develop a more flexible operational arrangement, meet high standards in product innovation and generally develop a more change-seeking business 12culture (Kilduff, 2005).An important survival tool for US TC firms is to expand their potential market by offering new product designs and product categories. Manufacturers must try to bring a steady stream of products to market that are in line with the taste, preferences of the consumer. They can also expand their market potential by offering new product categories. Two of the fastest growing apparel segments in the US, for example, have been the womens plus and mens big and tall segments (Driscoll, 2004). Plus-size apparel marketing was estimated at $47 billion in 2005 accounting for 20% of total apparel market. It is important to identify the firms target customers and assess whether the firm is successfully addressing their needs.US TC firms should target a narrow segment of the market that provides the best opportunity for success. In textiles, the focus should be on a few specialized segments such as carpets, nonwovens and technical textiles. Similarly, apparel producers should increase their focus on core products, reduce vertical integration to shed overhead costs, and establish alliances with other firms to consolidate resources and increase market share.Finally, in view of rising incomes and high growth rates in many developing countries such as China, Brazil, and India, there are potential export market opportunities for US textile and apparel products. US export interests may be served by seeking improved access to the retail distribution systems of developing countries. US textile firms should also be able to use Mexico to export to the European Union and other countries, taking advantage of the Mexico-EU trade agreement. Since the conclusion of NAFTA, a number of Asian and European firms have produced certain products in Mexico in order to export to the US market.This paper suggests a demand pull model as a basis for developing a network structure in the clothing industry. In a demand pull model, consumer demand is the driver of sales unlike the supply push model whereby the manufacturer pushes goods to the retailer regardless of consumer demand. 13 Retail companies have become powerful due to their sufficient capital and marketing expertise to build loyalty among consumers. They are the lead firm in view of their central role in the organizational network. The lead clothing retailer integrates industrial capabilities such as sourcing of textiles, design, product branding and its relations with consumers enables it to keep abreast of fashion consumption trends.The lead firm conveys its requirements to these changing trends (changes in style, material requirements) to its suppliers or subcontractors (Table 7). It also provides assistance with the purchasing of capital equipment and technology necessary to produce apparel in accordance with market demand. The fragmented webs of suppliers and subcontractors are bound together through information technology, online data sharing, joint product development, and collaborative forecasting, planning and replenishment activities. Retailers will hold less inventory as shipments become smaller and more frequent since point of sale data is directly transmitted to the manufacturer/supplier who will produce and ship garments as it is needed. This model shows the role of the retailer as an intermediary integrating the functions of design, textile sourcing, branding and as facilitator of apparel production through a web of suppliers/subcontractors. Such restructuring through technological improvements and information technology is one means of succeeding in an increasingly competitive environment. The horizontally structured, mass production methods no longer ensure future competitiveness.14The lions share of the benefits from quota elimination is expected to accrue to China. Its low labor cost, high productivity, range and flexibility of services as well as efficient supplier networks will make China the supplier of choice. About 87% of apparel executives that participated in a cotton sourcing summit in Miami in February 2004, agreed that China will soon account for 5090% of all apparel sold in the US market (National Labor Committee, 2004). This means rationalization of production and a massive consolidation of vendors. Other winners are likely to include India and Pakistan in narrow segments of the TC industry. The elimination of quotas is also likely to lead to lower prices for consumers in view of the absence of quota costs which is often a significant part of the cost of TC sold in the US market. Well-known brands may still hold market value since they are not subject to retail price deflation. It is important for TC firms to evaluate their internal capabilities such as sourcing, manufacturing, logistics, transportation etc. in order to develop an action plan for the post-quota world. Exporters from Latin America, Africa and the Caribbean are likely to lose market share to China since they largely compete on price (not quality) and lack the capability to produce high value added products. Even with the introduction of safeguards on a range of products that are of export interest to these countries, their US market share has declined since the phase out of quotas. With the complete removal of quotas in 2008, it is difficult for these countries to compete on price. Since the US government lifted quotas in 2002 on 29 categories, for example, Chinas market share (in these categories) jumped from just 9% (2002) to 65% (2003) while prices paid by US retailers (for apparel from China) dropped by 48% (National Labor Committee, 2004). In cotton dressing gowns (quotas removed) Chinas share in 2003 jumped from 25% to 39% while that of Caribbean countries fell from 13% to a mere 3%. In the first 12 months after the phase out of quotas, Chinas market share in apparel rose by 59% in value while that of many Central and South American countries showed a sharp decline.What are the implications for TC firms in countries that are vulnerable to competition from China? First, they should capitalize on their proximity to the US market. Their ability to offer lower transport cost, lower lead times as well as duty free entry to the US market may attract the fashion-oriented segment of the US 15industry. This will depend on access to good local transport infrastructure to get goods to market as well as advanced telecommunications systems to link suppliers and customers. Local firms and governments need to collaborate in creating a climate which is conducive to business and to develop infrastructure to attract and retain TC industries that are so vital in generating exports and employment.Secondly, low wages do not necessarily provide a comparative advantage with respect to China. Firms should develop new capabilities in areas in which China does not have a comparative advantage (yarn, and silk non-apparel). This requires, inter alia, investment in modern production methods and development of competitive sources of local raw mate