北京大学EMBA教材--制高点（DOC 190页）.docx

Episode One: The Battle of Ideas第一部：思想的战争1. 第一章：Prologue 序言 2:45 2. 第二章：The Old Order Fails 旧秩序的失败8:11 3. 第三章：Communism on the Heights 共产主义制高点 6:16 4. 第四章：A Capitalist Collapse 资本主义的崩溃 8:48 5. 第五章：Global Depression 全球性的萧条 5:26 6. 第六章：Worldwide War 世界大战 7:00 7. 第七章：Planning the Peace 筹备和平 6:47 8. 第八章：Pilgrim Mountain 朝圣山 3:43 9. 第九章：Germanys Bold Move 德国的大胆前进 4:11 10. 第十章：Indias Way 印度方式 3:51 11. 第十一章：Chicago Against the Tide 芝加哥逆流7:32 12. 第十二章：The Specter of Stagflation 滞胀幽灵6:34 13. 第十三章：A Mixed Economy Flounders 混合经济的挣扎8:36 14. 第十四章：Deregulation Takes Off 取消管制 7:29 15. 第十五章：Thatcher Takes the Helm 撒切尔掌权3:50 16. 第十六章：Reagan Rides In 里根上台8:17 17. 第十七章：War in the South Atlantic 南大西洋上的战争 1:41 18. 第十八章：The Heights Go Up for Sale 出售制高点 8:08 19. 第十九章：The Battle Decided? 战局已定？ 3:26 Chapter 1: Prologue 2:45第一章: 序言NARRATOR: As the 20th century drew to its close, and our new century began, the battle over the world economy intensified. Some people feared globalization and questioned the benefits. Others welcomed it.旁白: 随着二十世纪的即将结束和二十一世纪的很快来临，世界经济体竞争也在不断加剧。一些人害怕全球化的浪潮，对它能带来的好处持怀疑态度，而另外一些人则持欢迎态度。RICHARD CHENEY, U.S. Vice President: Millions of people a day are better off than they would have been without those trade developments, without globalization. And very few people have been harmed by it. 切尼，美国副总统： 如果没有贸易发展和全球化，每天会有数百万人的经济状况不会象现在这么好。没有什么人因为贸易发展和全球化而受到伤害。NARRATOR: As the terrible events of September 11 drove the world deeper into a recession, new questions emerged about the perils of the new world economy. Can our now deeply interconnected world surmount a global downturn and rise above other crises? And is global terrorism the dark side of the promise of globalization?旁白：911事件将世界经济推入到更严重的衰退中，随之出现有关新世界经济所面临的危险的新问题，密切联系的世界能否度过当前全球性的低迷时期并从危机中恢复呢？而全球恐怖主义又是不是全球化浪潮的阴暗面呢？BILL CLINTON, U.S. President, 1993-2001: You can't get away from the fact that globalization makes us interdependent. So it's not an option to shed it. So is it going to be on balance positive or negative?克林顿，美国总统，1993-2001：你不能无视全球化使我们互相依赖这个事实，因此无法选择摆脱它。那么总体来说它会是正面的还是负面的呢？ NARRATOR: This is the story of how the new global economy was born, a century-long battle as to which would control the commanding heights of the world's economies - governments or markets; the story of intellectual combat over which economic system would truly benefit mankind; the story of epic political struggles to implant those ideas on the nations of the world.旁白：这是新的全球经济诞生的故事这是一场长达一个世纪的战争，它围绕谁将控制世界各经济体的制高点而展开是政府还是市场；是智力斗争的故事哪一种经济制度可以真正有利于人类；是大规模政治斗争的故事通过这些斗争将那些观念灌输给世界各国。JEFFREY SACHS, Professor, Harvard University: Part of what happened is a capitalist revolution at the end of the 20th century. The market economy, the capitalist system, became the only model for the vast majority of the world. 杰裴里.萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs)，哈佛大学教授：所发生的事情部分来说是二十世纪末的一场资本主义革命。市场经济、资本主义制度成为世界绝大多数国家所奉行的模式。 NARRATOR: This economic revolution has defined the wealth and fate of nations and will determine the future of the planet.旁白： 这场经济革命决定了各个国家的财富和命运，而且也将决定地球的未来。 DANIEL YERGIN, Author, Commanding Heights: This new world economy is being driven by technological change and by political change, but none of it would have happened without a revolution in ideas.丹尼尔.尤金（DANIEL YERGIN），制高点的作者：技术变革和政治变革推动着世界新经济的发展，但是如果没有思想革命的话，这些都不会发生。NARRATOR: Tonight, the battle of ideas that still divides our world.旁白：今晚，思想斗争仍然把我们的世界分割开来。 Chapter 2: The Old Order Fails 8:11第二章：旧秩序的失败NARRATOR: Air-raid sirens sound the alert. German bombers will pound another British city tonight .旁白：空袭警报听起来令人警觉。德国轰炸机今晚将轰炸另一个英国城市。Onscreen title: Cambridge University, 1940字幕标题：剑桥大学，1940年During the blitz, the two most important economists of the age shared air-warden duty on the roof of King's College, an English gentleman and an Austrian exile - personal friends, but intellectual rivals. How their battle of ideas still shapes our life and society is our story.闪电战期间，那个时代最重要的两位经济学家共同担任(空袭时检查街道防空设施的)民防队员。他们中一位是英国绅士，一位是被放逐的奥地利人他们是朋友，但又是学术上的竞争对手。他们之间的思想斗争至今仍然影响着我们的生活和社会，这就是我们的故事。John Maynard Keynes helped the allied governments defend freedom by planning their wartime economies. Friedrich von Hayek thought government interference in the economy was a threat to freedom.凯恩斯通过为盟国政府规划战时经济来帮助他们捍卫自由。 哈耶克则认为政府干预经济是对自由的威胁。DANIEL YERGIN: The debate over market forces, whether you have economy that's based upon prices or on state, planning has been at the very heart of the economic battles of the last 100 years. For decades, the ideas of John Maynard Keynes dominated the economies of the Western world.丹尼尔.尤金：辩论涉及到各种市场力量。不管经济是建立在价格基础上还是建立在政府基础上，计划始终是过去100年中经济斗争的核心。几十年来，凯恩斯的思想是主宰了西方世界的经济体。JOSEPH STANISLAW, Co-Author, Commanding Heights: Keynes felt that the market economy would go to excesses, and when things were in difficulty the market wouldn't work. Therefore the government had to step in. Hayek felt that the market would eventually take care of itself. JOSEPH STANISLAW, 制高点的联合作者：凯恩斯认为市场经济会产生过剩；困难时期市场不起作用。因此政府必须介入。哈耶克则认为市场最终自会处理自身的问题。 DANIEL YERGIN: It was only when Hayek was a very old man that his ideas began to prevail and the world began to change. 丹尼尔.尤金:直到哈耶克到了耄耋之年他的思想才开始流行，而世界也开始改变了。NARRATOR: At the start of the 20th century, Hayek and Keynes had witnessed the first age of globalization. Every day life was being transformed everywhere. Technologies like the telegraph and the telephone revolutionized communications. Steamships and railways made the world a smaller place. Tens of millions migrated without the need for passports.旁白：二十世纪初，哈耶克和凯恩斯见证了第一次全球化浪潮。日常生活在各地都发生着变化。诸如电报、电话之类的科学技术带来了一场通讯革命；汽船和铁路使世界变得更小；数千万人移民而不需要有护照。Keynes described this global market in which trade flowed freely.凯恩斯描述了全球市场的情况，在这个市场中贸易自由流通。OHN MAYNARD KEYNES: The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea, the various products of the whole earth, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep. Militarism and imperialism of racial and cultural rivalries were little more than the amusements of his daily newspaper. What an extraordinary episode in the economic progress of man was that age which came to an end in August 1914. 凯恩斯:伦敦居民可以一边喝着早茶，一边通过电话来订购世界各地的产品；还可以想象着他们订购的产品早早地放在自家门口台阶上。种族、文化之间敌对的军国主义和帝国主义就如同每天看报的消遣一样。人类经济发展史上一个特别的章节即在1914年8月那个时代走到了尽头。NARRATOR: Hayek summed it up more succinctly.旁白：哈耶克的总结更加简洁。FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK: We did not realize how fragile our civilization was. 哈耶克: 我们没有意识到我们的文明是多么脆弱。NARRATOR: The murder of an Austrian archduke by a terrorist triggered a world war. It would be almost 80 years before there was once again a truly global economy.旁白：一位奥地利大公被恐怖分子谋杀引发了一次世界大战。将近80年以后，一个真正的全球经济才又再次出现。World War I destroyed 20 million lives. It laid a whole continent to waste. There was blood and carnage amidst the beauty of the Italian Alps, where the armies of Austria and Italy were fighting.第一次世界大战摧残了两千万个生命，将整个欧洲大陆变成一片废墟。意大利和奥地利军队在意大利的阿尔毕斯山激战，鲜血和屠杀遮蔽了阿尔毕斯山的美丽。Friedrich von Hayek served in the Austrian artillery. He was only 17 years old - still a schoolboy. The fighting was ferocious. He experienced retreat and defeat.哈耶克在奥地利炮兵部队中服役，当时他只有17岁还是一个学生。战斗是残酷的；他经历了撤退和战败。FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK: The decisive influence was really World War I. It's bound to draw your attention to the problems of political organization.哈耶克：第一次世界大战确实产生了决定性的影响，它必定将你的注意力吸引到政治组织的问题上来。NARRATOR: He vowed to work for a better world.旁白：他发誓要为建立一个更美好的世界而奋斗。DANIEL YERGIN: The first world war was a cataclysm. People were disillusioned. People were bitter. They were looking for something better. Socialism, communism seemed to promise that better world. 丹尼尔.尤金: 第一次世界大战无异于一次大地震，它使人们幡然醒悟并痛苦万分。人们在寻找更好的制度，而社会主义和共产主义似乎为人们勾画了一个更美好的世界。Onscreen title: St. Petersburg, 1917字幕标题：圣彼得堡，1917年NARRATOR: By overthrowing the old order, the Russian Revolution aimed to deliver that better world. Inspired by the economic theories of Karl Marx, the Bolsheviks sought to smash capitalism. Lenin, the revolution's leader, urged the workers of the world to unite against the global economy. The revolution made trade, commerce, and private property criminal acts. Lenin promised to end the economic exploitation of man by man.旁白：俄国革命推翻了旧秩序，它的目标就是建立一个更美好的世界。在马克思经济理论的鼓舞下，布尔什维克寻求推翻资本主义。列宁革命的领导者极力主张全世界的工人团结起来反对全球经济。革命使得贸易、商业和私人财产都成为犯罪活动。列宁承诺要结束人对人的剥削。Onscreen title: Cambridge University, 1918字幕标题：剑桥大学，1918年The man who was destined to be Hayek's great intellectual rival was a brilliant young academic at Cambridge University. But John Maynard Keynes was much more than that. He befriended writers and artists. One painted these murals for him. He was also a familiar figure in the City of London, where he made a fortune in the stock market, lost it all, and made it back again.这个注定要成为哈耶克思想上的竞争对手的年轻人是剑桥大学一位有才气的学者，但是这远不是凯恩斯的全部。他与作家和艺术家交朋友，一个人还为他画了一些壁画。另外，他还是伦敦城的一个家喻户晓的人物，因为他在伦敦股票市场上赚了大钱，全输掉了，然后又赚了回来。Familiar with politicians and prime ministers, Keynes spent the first world war advising the British government on how to organize its wartime economy. At the end of the war, Keynes joined the British peace delegation at Versailles in France. The victorious allies wanted defeated Germany to pay the costs of the war through what were called reparations. 因为凯恩斯与政治家们和首相们很熟悉，第一次世界大战期间他向英国政府就应如何组织战时经济提供顾问服务。战争结束时，凯恩斯作为英国和平代表团的成员前往法国凡尔赛。取得了胜利的盟国希望战败的德国支付赔款以赔偿战争损失。ROBERT SKIDELSKY, Biographer of J.M. Keynes: All the statesmen of Versailles could think about was how to squeeze money out of an already bankrupt Germany. ROBERT SKIDELSKY, 凯恩斯的传记作者: 在凡尔赛的政治家们想的都是如何从已经一贫如洗的德国身上榨出钱来。GEOFFREY HARCOURT, Professor of Economics, Cambridge University: Keynes felt the reparations were out of all proportion to what an economy could really take and would have very destructive social, political, and economic consequences.GEOFFREY HARCOURT, 剑桥大学经济学教授:凯恩斯认为赔款完全超出了一个经济体所能承受的限度并将造成破坏性的社会、政治和经济后果。NARRATOR: Angry and disgusted, Keynes resigned. Back in England, he went to stay with his friend, the painter Duncan Grant. That summer, Grant painted Keynes writing his prophetic book, The Economic Consequences of the Peace.旁白：出于愤怒和厌恶，凯恩斯辞职了。回到英格兰后，他与他的朋友画家Duncan Grant住在一起。那个夏天，Grant画下了正在写书的凯恩斯，那是一本预言式的书和平的经济后果. JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES: If we take the view that Germany must be kept impoverished and her children starved and crippled, vengeance, I dare predict, will not limp. Nothing can delay that final war that will destroy the civilization and progress of our generation. 凯恩斯:如果我们认为必须让德国非常贫困，让德国儿童挨饿、残废，那么我敢预言复仇将不会停止。没有什么能够延缓最终的大战，而这战争将摧毁人类文明和我们这一代的发展进程。Chapter 3: Communism on the Heights 6:16第三章：制高点上的共产主义Onscreen title: Vienna, 1919字幕标题：维也纳，1919年NARRATOR: Austria had lost the war and its empire. Vienna was a cold and hungry city. Revolution was in the air. Socialists and Communists were winning the battle for hearts and minds. Young and idealistic, Friedrich von Hayek enrolled at the University of Vienna. 旁白：奥匈帝国战败，帝国也解体了。维也纳是一个寒冷、饥饿的城市。革命很流行。社会主义者和共产主义者赢得了人心。年轻而又理想主义的哈耶克进入维也纳大学学习。FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK: It was during the war that I more or less decided to do economics. I really got hooked. 哈耶克：是在战争中，我决定从事经济学研究。我真的被它抓住了。NARRATOR: Socialism seemed to promise a more just society. Albert Zlabinger, a former pupil and disciple of Hayek: 旁白：社会主义似乎承诺了一个更公正的社会。Albert Zlabinger以前是哈耶克的学生和信徒。ALBERT ZLABINGER, Economist and Pupil of Hayek: He openly said that he at one time was a socialist of the mild sort, where concerns for the poor and concerns for fairness and equity would help to determine government policy. Albert Zlabinger，经济学家，哈耶克的学生：他公开说自己一度曾是温和的社会主义者，主张对穷人，公平和平等的关注将会帮助政府确定政策。NARRATOR: Much of Vienna's intellectual life took place outside the university, in the coffeehouses across the Ringstrasse. There were informal seminars for those who loved discussion and argument. Hayek joined the circle of a passionate libertarian called Ludwig von Mises. Von Mises believed markets, like people, needed to be free from government meddling. 旁白：维也纳的学术活动多数是在大学以外的Ringstrasse对面的咖啡馆进行的。热爱讨论和争论的人举办一些非正式的讨论会。哈耶克加入到一位充满热情的自由主义者的圈子当中，这个自由主义者就是Ludwig von Mises。Von Mises 认为市场就像人一样需要摆脱政府的干预。ALBERT ZLABINGER: Ludwig von Mises was the preeminent economist of the Austrian school. The distinguishing hallmark of the Austrian school of economic thought is that markets work and governments don't. ALBERT ZLABINGER：Ludwig von Mises是奥地利学派一位杰出的经济学家。奥地利学派经济思想的显著特点就是他们认为市场起作用而政府不起作用。NARRATOR: Von Mises predicted that the new Soviet socialist economy would never work, precisely because the government controlled wages and prices. 旁白：Von Mises预言正是由于政府控制工资和价格，所以新的苏联的社会主义经济永远不会成功。DANIEL YERGIN: What von Mises said is that the great flaw of socialism is that it doesn't have a functioning price system to send all the signals to consumers and producers as to what something is worth; that these prices are at the very heart of what makes a functioning economy work. 丹尼尔.尤金：Von Mises 所说的是指社会主义的一大缺点是它没有一个有效的价格体系来向消费者和生产者传递所有表示什么东西值多少钱的信号；而这些价格则恰恰是使经济有效运行的核心。You can think of them as traffic signals. And if you don't have them, what you get is a system that doesn't work, or you get chaos. 你可以把它们看作交通信号。如果没有它们，那么你得到的是一个无效的或者混乱的体系。ALBERT ZLABINGER: Von Mises argued that free markets do it best - why fool with anything else? ALBERT ZLABINGER：Von Mises争论说自由市场最有效为什么还要玩弄其他手段呢？Onscreen title: Moscow, 1922字幕标题：莫斯科，1922年NARRATOR: In Soviet Russia, it seemed as if von Mises's predictions were coming true. Lenin had abolished what he saw as the chaos of free markets. The state controlled the economy. Wages and prices were fixed. But the great Marxist experiment was in trouble. Lenin had an economic disaster on his hands. Soviet Russia was a grim place, haunted by cold, famine, hunger, and death. 旁白：在苏联，Von Mises的预言看起来好像应验了。列宁结束了他所认为的自由市场混乱状态。国家控制了经济。工资和价格是固定的。但是伟大的马克思主义的试验陷入了困境。列宁面临一场经济灾难。苏联成了一个严酷的地方，饱受寒冷、饥荒、饥饿和死亡的折磨。DANIEL YERGIN: Lenin knew that he needed a different kind of policy. and he instituted what would become known as the New Economic Policy. Lenin says farmers can sell their own goods and own their own land. He says that small businesses can operate, and you start to get an economic revival. Well, his comrades on the left attacked him viciously for selling out the principles of Bolshevism and Marxism. And Lenin, who by this time had already had a stroke and was not well, nevertheless pulled himself up on the platform for one of the very last times in his life, and he was still the old Lenin. He was vitriolic; he was sarcastic. His critics, he said, were fools, were stupid, because the state, the government, the Bolsheviks would control the overall economy: steel, railroads, coal, the heavy industries - what he called the "commanding heights" of the economy. 丹尼尔.尤金：列宁知道他需要推行另一种不同的政策，于是他推行了著名的“新经济政策”。列宁表示农民可以出售自己